Double Dutch, 22nd April 2014
A good 5/1 winner yesterday, courtesy of Megaleka, but nothing to go with it unfortunately.
Easter Monday’s results were as follows:
Balzaccio: 4th at 11/8 (adv 7/4)
Little Chip: 5th at 5/1 (adv 10/3)
Megaleka: won at 5/1 (adv 7/2)
Dancing Freddy: PU at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
214 winning selections from 753 = 28.42%
70 winning bets in 197 days = 35.53%
P/L : +54.91pts (+14.08% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A lot of dross in this change over month, and despite six meetings it’s quite hard to pull out of pair of punting puzzles. Nevertheless, I’ve selected a couple that I think give us a solid chance, starting with the…
A novices’ handicap chase with five runners and, despite the small field, they should go a fair clip. Doubledisdoubledat represents trainer Stuart Coltherd, and he is a man to follow in these parts. His eleven winners from 100 runners since 2009 here have netted a profit of 56.63 units to SP. Doubledisdoubledat will probably attempt to make all as he did when winning last time out and, though the ground is a bit of an unknown, he has the form to win.
Clondaw Knight may be best placed to take advantages of any ground frailties from Doubledisdoubledat. A winner three starts back here at Kelso, he’s run decent thirds at Haydock and Doncaster since, and the return to this slightly less fashionable track may seem him get back to winning ways, especially with the slight drop in class. He’ll be ridden handily too, so there should be no excuses on that score.
This is a bugger’s muddle of a race, with just four runners, one of which is a no-hoper. The reason I’ve chosen it is because there is a notably weak runner in the betting, and that offers scope for another to shorten markedly. Specifically, Mark Johnston’s First Move has been friendless, and current third choice Nam Hai – ridden by Wolverhampton expert, Luke Morris, has shortened into 7/1.
Nam Hai is entitled to improve for his first run, and may appreciate this a lot more than the soft turf he encountered then at Windsor. He’s a speculative, right enough, but with the weakness of the current second favourite – and the fact we have the jolly as a safety net – I think he’s worth playing.
The favourite is Alzammaar, and this fellow ran third in a similar event at Kempton last time out. Assuming he’s able to translate that form to this different surface, he may take a fair bit of beating, though his trainer, Charles Hills, could be in better form.
If we get through leg one, you might like to look at a tiny saver on First Move, but I will be letting it ride, and hoping the early market signals point to a bit of value.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Doubledisdoubledat/ Nam Hai @ 25/1 (9/4 & 7/1 : bet365)
Doubledisdoubledat / Alzammaar @ 5.83/1 (9/4 & 11/10 : bet365)
Clondaw Knight / Nam Hai @ 23.75/1 (7/4 & 8/1 : Betfred)
Clondaw Knight / Alzammaar @ 4.78/1 (7/4 & 11/8 : BetVictor)