Stat of the Day, 22nd April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd April 2014

Jockey Mark Quinlan retired from racing after the meeting at Towcester two months ago, but he returned to action with a bang yesterday as he steered our selection Roc de Guye home to win cosily by six lengths.

He kept the horse handy throughout, until hitting the front going over the last fence before pulling away on the run-in. It was a great return to action for mark and it completed our four-timer, with the added bonus of a drift out to 100/30 from our advised 5/2 BOG.

I’ve found Tuesday pretty difficult and I’ve ended up with a judgment call between two runners with the same stats behind them, but the race I’ve eventually settled on is the…

5.20 Wetherby:

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And Warren Greatrex’s 4yr old debutant runner One Track Mind, who can currently be backed at a generally available 11/4 BOG in the first division of the bumper today.

1. In the period from 2010 to 2014, Warren’s record in bumpers is excellent as figures of 27 winners from 124 runners will testify. This 21.8% strike rate at all odds has so far generated 85.3pts profits from level stakes, a return of 68.8% on your money.

If we were to do our usual 6/1 odds cap, the figures then become 18 winners from 59, a very healthy 30.5% SR for 28.6pts profit, with this year’s figures being excellent at 6/10 for 15.7pts.

The yard is in great form with seven wins and five placers from eighteen runners in the last fortnight (5 wins, 3 places from 12 in the last seven days) and over the last month, his horses have won six of nine bumpers.

2. Mr Greatrex also has an excellent record of getting his horses to win at the first time of asking, especially his 4 and 5 yr olds. Over the last four years, that record stands at 15 winners from 52 debutants (28.8% SR) for 58.5pts profit (+112.5% ROI) and in bumpers those stats are improved to 15/42 (35.7% SR) for 68.5pts (+163% ROI)

With a 6/1 odds cap imposed again, these debutants are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 20.5pts (+76% ROI) with bumpers showing a 50% strike rate (11/22) and a 116% return on stakes via 25.5pts profit.

Warren has two such debutants today in the shape of our selection One Track Mind and also Ma De Fou who is a 5/2 shot in the 5.50 race. Both of them are aged just 4yrs old and as such they both fit the above stats.

3. In fact, I should add that the yard’s 4 yr old debutants do better than the 5yr olds, but the sample size becomes considerably smaller, but for the record, here are the numbers…

On debut, all odds and races: 10/25 (40% SR) for 45.5pts (+182% ROI)
On debut in a bumper, all odds: 10/22 (45.5% SR) for 48.5pts (+220.5% ROI)
On debut, all races but 6/1 max SP: 7/14 (50% SR) for 13pts (+92.9% ROI)
On debut, bumpers and 6/1 cap: 7/13 (53.8% SR) for 14pts (+107.7% ROI)

Of his two runners today, I think Ma De Fou has more on his plate today, up against a McCoy-piloted LTO winner and although our selection One Track Mind is also up against a winner from last time out, I think this race is the weaker one and his main rival might have more of a struggle to carry on a penalty on faster ground than his victory.

I’ll be backing both Greatrex runners today, but the official line is a 1pt win bet on One Track Mind at 11/4 BOG with Hills. Other bookies are, of course, available and you can see their prices when you…

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Here is today’s racecard.

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