Double Dutch, 22nd April 2014
We were back to form with a bang yesterday, as both of our longer-priced selections did the biz for a whopping 25/1 double. Which was nice. 😉
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Doubledisdoubledat: won at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Clondaw Knight: 3rd at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
Nam Hai: won at 2/1 (adv 7/1 !)
Alzammaar: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 11/10)
Results to date:
216 winning selections from 755 = 28.61%
71 winning bets in 198 days = 35.86%
P/L : +65.91pts (+16.81% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Today will likely be a bit of a come down after yesterday’s boost, but we’ve still got a sound chance of hitting a double, beginning with the…
It started well in the far south of Scotland for us yesterday, and today we head to the northernmost track in Britain, Perth, for a three mile novice hurdle. Seven go to post and, while all have some scope to improve, there is nothing in the way of wildly unexposed runners. Consequently, the two top rated horses, Sausalito Sunrise and Oscar Rock, will collectively take some beating.
Sausalito Sunrise has won his last three outside of Graded company, a sequence that has been punctuated by two fair runs in defeat in top class, including a sixth place in the Albert Bartlett. If he’s not ‘over the top’ for the season, that level of form is the best on show.
Oscar Rock is actually weighted to beat Sausalito on official figures, and though his win record is less spectacular, he’s run consistently well in defeat on heavy ground, which may not have suited. Indeed, he’s finished third in a Grade 1 and a Grade 2 on his last two runs, and favourite aside, there’s nothing here that can match that level of form.
The rest have a bit to find at the weights.
A weak looking maiden, with just five going to post. It is Epsom, and funny things can happen on this most quirky of Classic courses, but all other things being equal, this looks between the top pair in the market, D’Avignon and Ravenous. D’Avignon is trained by John Gosden who is currently boasting a preposterous 42% strike rate in the last fortnight, with 16 winners from 38 runners.
That alone is almost enough to assure his place, but the fact that he is completely unexposed on turf – this will be his first run on the grass – is another positive. While it’s possible he won’t act on it, especially given it’s still on the soft side at Epsom, the fact his trainer sends him here implies they’d be happy with the give.
Ravenous is a bit more exposed, having had four runs, and the pick of the quartet was a close up third over a mile on soft. That reads well enough in the context of this race – a mile maiden on soft – and ‘Raif’ Beckett normally has his mob ready first time up (5/18, 28% strike in the last two weeks). He’s the highest rated in the field – of the two with a rating! – and a mark of 75 would be enough to take a race like this often.
After The Goldrush and Moshe are not out of it, the former with one decent piece of form and Ryan Moore steering, and the latter entitled to improve from a single previous run. But this looks quite likely to go to the top of the market.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Sausalito Sunrise/ D’Avignon @ 5.88/1 (7/4 & 6/4 : Skybet)
Sausalito Sunrise / Ravenous @ 6.56/1 (7/4 & 7/4 : bet365)
Oscar Rock / D’Avignon @ 6.2/1 (15/8 & 6/4 : SkyBet)
Oscar Rock / Ravenous @ 7.25/1 (2/1 & 7/4 : Bet365)