Stat of the Day, 24th April 2014
Our winning run came to an end yesterday, but our selection On The Move was far from disgraced finishing third as he seemed to run out of steam late on.
We were the victims of a drift in price as went out from our advised 7/2 to a fairly big SP of 8/1, which I suppose technically would have made him an E/W bet by my “rules”, but we did land a 7/1 winning drifter earlier in the week, so these things tend to even themselves out.
No time for what ifs and maybes, though, we need to go again and this time it’s a Class 5, 6 furlong maiden in the…
Where I’m backing Ralph Beckett’s 3yr old debutant Dinneratmidnight. The yard is in top form at present (6 wins and 3 places from 17 runners in the last 2 weeks) and consistently produces profits year in, year out.
1. Since the start of 2010 Mr Beckett has saddled up 240 winners from his 1337 runners priced at 16/1 or under (obvious outsiders all excluded!) and this 17.95% strike rate has yielded 244.4pts profit to date, a return of 18.3% above all stakes.
2. He tends to do better in non-handicap races with 123 winners of 641 races making a strike rate of 19.2% and the resultant profits of 170.4pts are the equivalent of 26.6% of stakes. This year alone, these runners are 7/28 for 46.53pts.
3. His three-year olds have a good record on debut with nine wins from 33 (27.3% SR) for 67.3pts (+203.9% ROI) profit in the last four years and the results this year have been brilliant so far, with four winners from six producing 42.35pts profit.
4. With the same 16/1 proviso as earlier, the yard’s record with 3yr olds in maiden races is 28/91, a 30.8% strike rate generating 46.9pts (+51.5% ROI) profits and there have been two winners from seven this year already, resulting in 16pts profits.
There’s not a great deal I can tell you about the horse himself, but he’s by Kyllachy who offspring are 10/44 for 26.5pts when running at 7 furlongs or shorter here at Warwick and priced at 8/1 or shorter, with his three-year olds performing best (6/12 for 32.8pts). He’s related to plenty of winner at 5/6 furlongs including Group 3 winner Dutch Masterpiece, so shouldn’t lack for speed and should give a good account of himself first time out.
So, it’s a 1pt win bet on Dinneratmidnight and I’m taking the 4/1 BOG on offer from Bet365, but I strongly recommend that you…
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