Double Dutch, 25th April 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 25th April 2014

Genius Boy was beaten by nine lengths into second place at Beverley yesterday and sadly that was about as good as it got for my return to DD action.

Thursday’s results were as follows:

Genius Boy: 2nd at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Bling King: u/p at 5/1 (adv 9/2)
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Mignolino: u/p at 100/30 (adv 9/2)
Low Cut Affair: u/p at 5/2 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
218 winning selections from 763 = 28.57%
72 winning bets in 200 days = 36.00%

Stakes: 396.00pts
Returns: 462.94pts

P/L : +66.94pts (+16.90% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I’m not in the best of form here on DD, but I’m pretty confident that today’s runners will give good accounts of themselves starting with the…

2.30 Perth

Where it’s very hard to ignore the claims of in-form Baileys Concerto. He was an easy winner over this trip six days ago and although he carries a 7lb penalty for that win, has the stamina to bear that weight, as he stays much further than this. He seeks a hat-trick today and the start of this sequence was over 2m4.5f at Hexham, so there’s no danger of him not getting home. Unfortunately his recent form is now reflected at the bookies, where the best on offer is now just 15/8 with Betfair Sportbook and PP.

The stats suggest that Wilde Pasture will be the one to give the favourite most to think about. He loves the soft ground, winning four times and placing twice in seven attempts and he has a record of four wins and a place from eight runs at this minimum trip. The defection of Gud Day leaves just seven runners and Wilde Pasture seems to thrive in these smaller fields, which can often get tactical and he has managed to secure three wins and a place from eight races of seven or less runners. I think he’s an excellent backup bet here at 6/1 BOG

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7.25 Newton Abbot

Warren Greatrex’s horses are flying at the moment (9/20 in the last fortnight and 5/9 in the last week) and Chalk It Down is his only runner today. This horse won on his only previous visit to this track and has also won one of his two starts over today’s trip. Both his career wins to date have come from the three contests of seven runners or less and this looks like an opportunity for him to land that elusive first hurdles success at odds of around 85/40 (BetVictor).

My preference, however, is for Dovil’s Date at 100/30 BOG, as he has run into decent form of late. He was an easy winner two starts ago under similar conditions to today (same distance, class and going) when he finished six lengths clear of his nearest rival at Taunton just over six weeks ago. He was then undone last time out (also at Taunton) by a step up by 2.5f  and his challenged faded late on after running well for most of the race. He had gone up 8lbs for that outing, but his jockey’s claim had increased by 7lbs, so I’d suggest it was the trip that caught him out.

He drops back to 2m1f here with the same jockey as last time and I think he’ll get back to winning ways in this one to preserve that 100% record at this trip.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Baileys Concerto / Chalk It Down @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Baileys Concerto / Dovil’s Date @ 10.92/1 (7/4 & 100/30 : BetVictor)
Wilde Pasture / Chalk It Down @ 20/1 (6/1 & 2/1 : Betfair Sportsbook & Stan James)
Wilde Pasture / Dovil’s Date @ 27.17/1 (11/2 & 100/30 : BetVictor)