Stat of the Day, 25th April 2014
It was a good day for us yesterday, as we recorded yet another win in this extraordinary purple patch for SotD.
Dinneratmidnight quickened nicely inside the final furlong to beat the 33/1 shot Byron’s Gold by a length and a slight drift out to an SP of 9/2 put an extra half point in the coffers, after I’d suggested a play at 4/1 BOG.
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Now onto Friday’s selection, which runs in the…
Where I’ve just taken 9/2 BOG on the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Elite Army, who will today be ridden by Silvestre de Sousa. Today is just the second time the horse has appeared and he was a winner over a mile at Kempton on debut back in November. He steps up a couple of furlongs today for his handicap debut.
1. Saeed Bin Suroor has a good record with horses making their handicap debut. In the last six seasons, 164 of his horses have made their handicap debuts at odds of 12/1 or shorter with 51 (31.1% SR) of them going on to win at the first time of asking, generating level stakes profits of 88.7pts, an ROI of 54.1%. The record at 6/1 or under is an excellent 45/123 (36.6% SR) for 65.2pts (+53% ROI)
2. His handicap debutants also perform well when asked to step up in trip from their last run. In the last six seasons and once again at odds of 12/1 or shorter: horses stepping in trip by 0.5 furlongs to 2.5 furlongs (2f today) have won 27 of 70 races with that 38.6% strike rate netting backers 64.9pts (+92.8% ROI) profits. And the results with a 6/1 odds cap are as follows: 24 winners from 54 (44.44% SR) for 43.6pts profit (+80.8% ROI).
3. Silvestre de Sousa is in the saddle today and he has performed well on board this trainer’s horses in the past. To date, he has ridden 66 winners from the 233 horses priced between evens and 6/1 with the 28.3% strike rate producing reasonable level stakes profits of 36.1pts, a return of almost 15.5% above stakes. It’s not earth shattering, but it’s far better than the bank pays. This year alone, he is 4/7 on the Suroor string, bringing in 9.6pts to the bottom line to a yard in good form (5 wins and 3 placed from 11 runners this year so far.)
As this is only Elite Army‘s second outing, there’s not much to tell, other than he shaped like he wanted further when staying on to win on debut and his breeding suggests this should also be the case. He’s a son of Derby winner Authorized out of a dam who stayed 1m2f & 1m3f from her racing days in Germany, so you’d imagine that today’s trip will end up being his bare minimum from now on, assuming all goes well today, of course!
There’s enough for me to go on here and I’m more than happy to place a 1pt win bet on Elite Army at 9/2 BOG and I’m reinvesting some of yesterday’s winning back with Bet365, but to see what the other firms are offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS