Double Dutch, 26th April 2014
I just about called the race correctly at Newton Abbot last night, where I preferred the 15/2 winner Dovil’s Date to the eventual odds on favourite Chalk It Down, who got to within a neck late on.
Yet, as much as I enjoyed picking a 15/2 winner and reaping a £19.40 exacta, it counts for nothing for DD purposes.
And that’s because both our runners in the earlier race finished outside the first two home. Baileys Concerto was the better of the two, but had no extra when needed in the final 100yds, going down by a length and a half.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Baileys Concerto: 3rd at 13/8 (adv 15/8)
Wilde Pasture: u/p at 4/1 (adv 6/1)
Dovil’s Date: won at 15/2 (adv 100/30!)
Chalk It Down: 2nd at 10/11 (adv 85/40)
The Exacta paid £19.40 here.
Results to date:
219 winning selections from 767 = 28.55%
72 winning bets in 201 days = 35.82%
P/L : +64.94pts (+16.32% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Saturday is as competitive as ever and offers us our last chance of the week before my Sunday break, so I’m looking for winners starting with the…
Inis Meain stayed on well to land a similar Listed contest at The Curragh thirteen days ago, winning by some 2.5 lengths. I’ve no qualms about him getting the extra 2.5 furlongs here, as not only was he doing his best work at the end of that race, he had also won over 2m 7f on heavy ground at Navan a month earlier, so stamina shouldn’t be a reason for defeat today. His only previous run here at Limerick was in this very race last year, when he won by 4.5 lengths and he’s now rated at 3/1 BOG by PP to repeat that triumph. His record at this trip reads 21132, so I expect him to be there or thereabouts again today.
My slight preference, however, is for Joseph O’Brien’s mount El Salvador. Joseph rides well here at Limerick, winning four times and making the frame on a further five occasion from his thirteen rides here over the last year or so. That run of rides includes El Salvador’s only two previous visits to Limerick, where his record now stands at 2/2, both over today’s C&D and his record at this type of trip reads 211112 and he acts on pretty much all ground with good form ranging from heavy to good to firm via some good A/W runs too. He’s very versatile and this is his optimum trip and he my most likely winner at 5/2 BOG with Boylesports.
Goldstorm has won four times from eight attempts over this course and distance and she was runner-up on three other occasions and she’ll be looking to extend that record here today. She runs off 82 here, some 7lbs higher than her last winning mark, but it’s the same rating as her last outing, where she was unlucky in running on her way to a 2.25 lengths defeat at Leicester. I’m not saying she’d have won that day, but she would certainly have got closer with a clear run.
That was some 249 days ago, but she has run and won on the back of a 200-day break in the past, when securing another of those C&D wins in January 2013. Her current odds of 4/1 BOG might look quite generous come race time.
The most likely challenger is probably Bold Prediction, who is able to run here off the same 80 mark as his last victory and he has been ticking over nicely despite not winning of late. He ran pretty well in finishing third at Yarmouth on Tuesday and this looks a weaker contest for his return to Wolverhampton, where he has one win and one place to his name from his two outings. PP are offering 4/1 BOG about this one, which seems more than fair.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
El Salvador / Goldstorm @ 16.50/1 (5/2 & 4/1 : Boylesports)
El Salvador / Bold Prediction @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : PP)
Inis Meain / Goldstorm @ 17.75/1 (11/4 & 4/1 : Boylesports)
Inis Meain / Bold Prediction @ 19/1 (3/1 & 4/1 : PP)