Stat of the Day, 26th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th April 2014

No glory, but no disgrace either for Elite Army yesterday, as the extra 2 furlongs now looks a step too far too soon. He travelled well and led from a long way out, but was over powered in the final furlong, eventually coming home in third place, just over six lengths off the pace.

We can draw some comfort from the fact that the next horse was 13 lengths behind him and that at 9/2 BOG advised, we smashed the 5/2 SP.

We’re getting a similar kind of price today for our runner, which runs in the…

4.15 Leicester:

Where a very familiar 9/2 BOG has been taken about Ian Williams’ runner Zafranagar, who we hope will be piloted to a first win in six flat races since winning off today’s mark at Doncaster back in March 2012 (he has been hurdling in that time too!). His cause will hopefully be aided by jockey George Downing’ 5lb claim which should enable him to be competitive on a track he has performed well at in the past.

1. Ian Williams has employed the services of a 5lb claiming jockey on exactly 100 horses priced at 12/1 or under since the start of the 2011 campaign. 23 of 100 have won and this has generated 53.5pts profit, an excellent return in my opinion. From these runners, George Downing has ridden four winners from thirteen for 16.37pts profit (+125.9% ROI)

More pertinent/relevant to SotD is the 15/40 (37.5% SR) record with those runners priced between 2/1 and 6/1, resulting in level stakes profits of 30.23pts (+75.6% ROI) with George Downing’s contribution weighing in at 3/5 for 9.13pts (+182.6% ROI)

2. Ian Williams’s horse who haven’t won in the last 5 (or more!) races and have subsequently dropped to their last winning mark or lower have a record of 28 wins from 119 at odds of 12/1 or under. This 23.53% strike rate is responsible for profits of 60.25pts (+50.63% ROI) to date, with George Downing riding four winners from for 11.69pts (+233.8% ROI).

3. Zafranagar is a former course and distance winner and has a 2 from 5 record at the track, whilst he has three wins and two places from just eight starts on good ground to his name.

It might well be over two years since he last won on the flat, but he was a winner here at Leicester over hurdles as recently as last November and he returned to Flat racing last month at Doncaster for the first time in 11 months. He was a very good second over today’s trip that day and is sure to come on for that run.

He finished a length and a quarter behind Memory Cloth who then ran here and won again six days later. The third-placed horse at Doncaster was Time Square, 4.5 lengths adrift of Zafranagar and he subsequently also won next time out (by a length and a half at Kempton 16 days ago).

So, if the form holds out, there’s no reason why we won’t get a good run for our money and that form allied to the stats above suggest we might well be quids in with a 1pt win bet on Zafranangar at 9/2 BOG. I’ve got on with BetVictor, but the same price is also on offer with PP & Betfair Sportsbook, so you can take your pick from those two or as ever, feel free to…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.15 Leicester

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Here is today’s racecard.