Double Dutch, 28th April 2014
We were a nose away from a 16.5/1 double on Saturday, as that was the margin by which El Salvador was edged out in the Listed race at Limerick.
Both our selections there were involved in the shake-up, but finished 2nd and 3rd behind Tarana, who just about did enough to hold on. This meant that our bookie-smashing win later at Wolverhampton didn’t count for anything, unless you were playing the singles too.
There, Bold Prediction was backed down from our advised 4/1 BOG into a skinny 11/10 at the off and he stayed on to win fairly comfortably in the end.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
El Salvador: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Inis Meain: 3rd at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
Bold Prediction: won at 11/10 (adv 4/1!)
Goldstorm: u/p at 9/2 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
220 winning selections from 771 = 28.53%
72 winning bets in 202 days = 35.64%
P/L : +62.94pts (+15.74% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Pretty mediocre stuff as always on a Monday, but there’s plenty of races and each of them will have a winner. I “only” need to find two, starting in the…
Both the stats and recent form tell me that this is Until Midnight‘s race to win (or lose, I suppose!) and at 13/8 BOG, you’d be expecting him to clean up here. He comes here on a hat-trick, including a win over C&D LTO. That was his only run here to date and his overall record on the All-Weather is two wins from three. He’s up 6lbs here, but that shouldn’t be enough to stop him continuing his upturn in form, since joining his new yard.
Of his rivals, I find Russian Ice interesting. She’s got a fairly average record of 4 wins from 34 races in total, but she’s 4/15 in handicaps over course and distance for almost 39pts profit. She last won some 14 months ago off a mark of 72, but then struggled with a subsequent rise in the weights.
She has been running well of late, though, off 68 and a further drop to 66 today should make her competitive. Irrespective of the doubles here, she actually looks a reasonable E/W bet today at 15/2 BOG.
Off to Ireland for another crack at a Listed contest after Saturday’s near miss and my pick here is the 3/1 shot Maarek, who won this race last year and conditions look ideal for a repeat today. The going is said to be Good To Yielding and he’s currently 2/2 on such ground. In fact, all 10 career wins have come on ground softer than good and further rain expected, he’ll feel right at home today.
He’s four from six at this trip (151211), including wins at Groups 3 & 1 in his last two runs over the minimum distance. he is unbeaten in two visits to Naas and performs well in this size of field (4 wins and 2 places from eight runs) and could well extend that sequence at the expense of Guerre in particular, who has undoubted talent and is very unexposed at this level. Unfortunately that inexperience might be his biggest hindrance today.
Otherwise, Guerre looks to be the main threat to my selection. This son of War Front stayed on well to win a maiden on debut at The Curragh last September, before heading straight into Listed company at the same venue a fortnight later. He was only beaten by three lengths into second place that day and you’d expect there’s a lot more to come from him.
He’s already rated at 102 after just two runs and if he’s able to run well after a seven month absence from the track, he could well land this at 3/1 BOG. The fact that he holds several Group 1 entries suggests his team are expecting good progression this year.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Until Midnight / Maarek @ 9.50/1 (13/8 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Until Midnight / Guerre @ 9/1 (6/4 & 3/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Russian Ice / Maarek @ 33/1 (15/2 & 3/1 : BetVictor & BetFred)
Russian Ice / Guerre @ 33/1 (15/2 & 3/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)