Double Dutch, 29th April 2014
Wins for Until Midnight (SP of Evens from our original 13/8) and Guerre (11/4 from 3/1) combined to give us a handy 9/1 double on the day and get the scoreboard ticking over again.
It was another of the days that reminds us of the necessity of using BOG prices, as the SP double only paid 13/2.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Until Midnight: won at Evens (adv 13/8)
Russian Ice: u/p at 10/1 (adv 15/2)
Guerre: won at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Maarek: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
The forecast paid £12.35 here.
Results to date:
222 winning selections from 772 = 28.76%
73 winning bets in 203 days = 35.96%
P/L : +65.94pts (+16.40% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Other than some tough-to-call races at Punchestown, quality looks thin on the ground again today, but we’ve at least a fighting chance with these…
Hassle has been a model of consistency throughout his short seven race career, but does usually find at least one too good for him. A step up in trip for the first time, an absence of 29 weeks from racing and the fact that he’s conceding weight all round means I see little value in his current 5/2 favouritism with Ladbrokes. The fact he’s generally as low as 2/1 puts me off even more.
I’m going to oppose him with Kingscombe at 15/2 BOG with BetVictor, who despite never having even made the frame on turf in seven attempts, has been in brilliant form on the All-Weather at Southwell of late. He rattled up four consecutive wins in six weeks and has since had a four-week rest to come here fresh. His last three runs/wins were at today’s 1m6f trip and he now defends that unbeaten record at the distance. None of his rivals have won at this trip and Kingscombe gets to run here off a mark 8lbs lower than his last win and a full stone lighter than his new A/W mark.
Entihaa‘s sole win to date came at Newcastle over a mile and a half and he ran well again there over course and distance earlier this month. He stayed on well that day and the way he completed the race suggested that he needed the extra couple of furlongs on offer today. That previous win was on similarly good to soft ground as he’ll encounter today and in a similar sized field of runners.
He stayed on really well last time out, making up masses of headway late on from a long way back and if he can be kept closer to the action today, he could well take this at a generally available 6/1 BOG.
And if we’re still standing after those speculative-looking selections, we’ll go again in the…
Where 11 yr old veteran and course specialist The Osteopath will seek to land a fourth track victory and his third over course and distance. He has won three times and been placed a further five times from his twelve runs here at Newcastle (121 over C&D) and will come here with the benefit of a pipe-opener at Pontefract a fortnight ago and conditions underfoot will suit him here. He’s by no means a penalty kick, but if he gives his customary Newcastle effort, he could very well defy the 8/1 BOG on offer from Hills and BetVictor. In fact had two runners not pulled out reducing the place terms to just two, I’d have had an E/W bet on him here.
Just as in race 1, I’m going to oppose a favourite who seems to be a consistent sort, but doesn’t win often enough for my liking: Simply Shining is actually up another 4lbs despite not winning last time out and therefore doesn’t represent enough value to me at odds of 11/8 to 13/8, so I’ll turn my attentions to Hakuna Matata, who runs for the in-form Michael Dods.
The horse was in good form last summer, winning at Pontefract and Ripon, before ending the season with a good third place finish in the Straight Mile Championship Final at Redcar (Class 2). That was a much stronger race than this and he drops two classes from that outing to run here. He returned to action three weeks ago at Pontefract where he clearly needed a run after a 6-month break and he’s sure to strip fitter for that outing. If he runs like he did at Redcar two starts ago, he has a great chance here at 9/2 BOG for a yard who scored a double at this track last week.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Entihaa / Hakuna Matata @ 37.50/1 (6/1 & 9/2 : BetVictor)
Entihaa / The Osteopath @ 62/1 (6/1 & 8/1 : BetVictor)
Kingscombe / Hakuna Matata @ 45.75/1 (15/2 & 9/2 : BetVictor)
Kingscombe / The Osteopath @ 75.50/1 (15/2 & 8/1 : BetVictor)