Double Dutch, 30th April 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 30th April 2014

At odds ranging from 37.5/1 up to 75.5/1, you’d be forgiven for thinking that yesterday’s selection were more a flight of fancy rather than actually having a chance, but I really didn’t fancy the favourites in both races at such short odds, which gave value to our selections.

As it happens, our double didn’t quite come off, but Entihaa’s half-length defeat was the sole margin between success and failure for us, as he just couldn’t quite close the gap on the 5/4 jolly.

The favourite was duly dispatched into third place in race 2, as Hakuna Matata scored by two lengths and it could easily have been more. Overall, a slight profit for singles backers, a slight profit for E/W doubles, but as for the main selection: it was a case of close, but no cigar for the 37.5/1 double.

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Entihaa: 2nd at 5/1 (adv 6/1)
Kingscombe: u/p at 10/1 (adv 15/2)
Hakuna Matata: won at 11/4 (adv 9/2)
The Osteopath: u/p at 15/2 (adv 8/1)

Results to date:
223 winning selections from 776 = 28.74%
73 winning bets in 204 days = 35.78%

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Stakes: 404.00pts
Returns: 467.94pts

P/L : +63.94pts (+15.83% ROI)


Quite a contrast between the two races I’ve selected today, starting with the…

3.45 Ascot:

A Group 3 contest over 2 miles on soft ground, which might find a few out today. Harris Tweed is currently the 9/4 BOG favourite here with SkyBet and its easy to see why. He acts well on soft ground, as figures of 1123142 will testify and the last of which (and his last run) was a narrow defeat over course and distance here on Champions Day in a similar Group 3 race. He was collared on the line, going down by just a nose in only his second attempt at this long trip. He has been around the block a few times, but is proven at this level: 4 wins and 8 places from 20 starts at Listed Class or better and looks set for another big run today.

But I prefer Tac De Boitron, who at first glance comes here with a career form line of 3121, but he’s not as inexperienced as that might look. He’s actually raced 31 times to date, all around the world and he has a healthy strike rate from winning 7 of those races. He was third at Goodwood and then a winner at Chester last summer: both Listed races, before running a couple of Group 1 races at Longchamp in France, finishing 2nd to Altano and then winning the Prix Royal-Oak by a good 5 lengths over 1m7f on very soft ground.

He also has Group 2 success to his name, he has won three times and placed once from seven runs on soft ground (3 win and 5 places from 11 starts on very soft/heavy). He gets the trip easily enough with 3 wins and 4 places from 9 attempts and stayed 2.5 miles on his penultimate start. That was on soft ground, so stamina really shouldn’t be an issue here and he’s my pick at 4/1 BOG (Stan James)

And from this quality of race, we head for a Class 6 handicap, aka the…

6.25 Brighton

Where Choral Festival is an interesting entry. This 8yr old mare seems to win at least once per season and this might her easiest option this term, even though it’s still only April! She does most of her running at a higher level than this, having rattled up 6 wins and 15 places from 44 efforts at Class 5, as well as a win and several places at Class 4. She drops down to Class 6 here today for the first time in almost three years and comes here on the back of a decent run at Windsor last time out.

She was beaten by three lengths in that last race (today’s trip on soft ground) and has been eased a pound in the weights and she now runs off 63, some 7lbs lower than her last victory. She’s one of only two horses in the race with a distance win to her name (4 wins at this trip) and when you consider she was running off 76 last summer/autumn, she could well be thrown in here at best odds of 9/4 BOG.

Now, if Dozy Joe can bring some of his A/W form to the turf, he will also stand a very good chance of taking what looks a pretty weak race. The favourite is no great shakes, but still looks the best of this bunch, which tells you it shouldn’t take much winning.

Dozy Joe has won 2 of his last 3 outings, all at Wolverhampton and all over 1m 1.5f, so he’s not being asked to go much further here. He last won off a mark of 63 and his current A/W rating is 66, but he gets to run off 61 here today, making him theoretically 5lbs well in if he can bring that A/W form to the turf. Such is the current state of the Wolverhampton track, I’m not sure exactly how it rides anymore!

In his favour is the one win and one place from three runs on good to soft ground, whilst he has won three times (including his last two) and made the frame twice from eight starts in this grade. The switch of surface is, of course, the doubt with him today, but that is reflected in his current 4/1 BOG (BetVictor) price.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Harris Tweed / Choral Festival @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Harris Tweed / Dozy Joe @ 14/1 (2/1 & 4/1 : BetVictor)
Tac De Boitron / Choral Festival @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : Stan James)
Tac De Boitron / Dozy Joe @ 21.50/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : Stan James)

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