Stat of the Day, 1st May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2014

No winning finale to April as it was a bad day all round for Charlie Appleby, Silvestre de Sousa and Stat of the Day.

Just like Tender Emotion half an hour earlier, Dullingham was well backed, sent off as favourite before weakening badly and fading from contention. But these days/things happen and we just dust ourselves down and go again.

We’ll kick off the merry month of May with a trip to Wales for the…

7.25 Ffos Las:

And a Gardner family affair, where Lucy Gardner will ride the 4/1 (PP) shot Rafafie who is trained by her mother Susan. This horse steps down in class to compete in this 2 mile handicap hurdle after finishing third at Exeter last time out.

1. Susan Gardner’s record in NH handicap races is excellent and if you’d put a tenner on every one of her 236 runners since New Year’s Day 2011, you have a tidy profit of £790 now, a return on stakes of some 33.5%. That’s because she has a 17.8% strike rate at all odds via 42 winners.

40 of those winners were priced at 12/1 or under where the record reads 40/157 = 25.5% SR for 123.55pts (+78.7% ROI) profit and more in line with general SotD selections, her handicappers are 30/82 (36.6% SR) for 89.4pts (+109% ROI) when sent off at 6/1 or shorter.

2. When she employs the services of a jockey claiming 5lbs, her record is 20 winners from 84 runners, as 23.8% strike rate returning profits of 78.3pts in the process, an overall yield of 93.2%. Daughter Lucy has ridden 56 of those 84 horses, with 13 wins representing a 23.2% strike rate for 59.7pts (+106.6% ROI).

If we once again impose a 6/1 odds cap the yard’s horses are 14/34 (41.2% SR) for 50.7pts (+149.1% ROI) with a 5lb claimer on board with Lucy’s own personal stats reading as 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 27.1pts (+142.5% ROI)

3. Mrs Gardner also has a good record with her handicappers dropping in class with 7 winners from 17 at odds of 6/1 or under: the 41.2% strike rate generating 22.16pts (+130.4% ROI) with Lucy’s contribution amounting to 4 wins from 10 for 9.54pts to date.

This is only Rafafie‘s second attempt at a handicap and he shaped very well on debut, finishing third of fifteen at Exeter five weeks ago. He was well supported that day and the drop in class should help him here in what looks (on paper, at least!) a weaker contest.

He can be expected to come on for that handicap debut and if there’s any progression, that should be enough for his first win over hurdles (he did win a bumper this time last year) and he looks reasonable value at 4/1 BOG, bearing in mind he was sent off at 7/2 in a better race last time out.

So, I’ve taken 4/1 BOG about Rafafie with PP, whilst 100/30 BOG seems to be the norm elsewhere, as you’ll see for yourself when you…

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Here is today’s racecard.