Stat of the Day, 30th April 2014
The talented Jason Hart got his sectionals right yet again yesterday, as he produced Sirpertan at just the right time to get up late and win by a head. The horse was keen to get on with things and Jason had to restrain him and hold him up until the last of the twelve furlongs before asking the horse to go on and win.
The only hairy moment from that point was Sirpertan’s seeming reluctance to get his nose in front, but Jason drove him home to just pip Vosne Romanee in a tight finish.
The icing on the cake came when we got 4/1 BOG about a 7/4 winner, do I need to bang on about BOG again? 😀
Probably not, so let’s turn our attention to the last SotD of what has been an entertaining and profitable month and we’re off to Yorkshire for the…
Where I’m backing Charlie Appleby’s handicap debutant Dullingham at 9/4 BOG.
Dullingham comes here well rested after a 205-day break following his gelding operation since last seen winning a maiden here at Pontefract over course and distance. That was his fourth outing in his juvenile season that got better as it went along and further progression will be expected from this Godolphin son of Dubawi today.
Seventh of ten on debut at Sandown over 7f, but only beaten by less than 6.5 lengths in a race that has produced several winners, he then stepped up to a mile to finish 4th of 9 at Bath, 4 lengths off the pace. Only the runner-up that day, Act of Charity has been sighted since, but he has won two of three subsequent outings.
Dullingham then raced again at Bath and found the further step up to today’s 10f trip more to his liking and was beaten by just a neck before coming here to Pontefract to win over today’s course and distance. He won easily that day, finishing a good 3 lengths ahead of Liberty Red, despite easing down well before the line. Liberty Red has since run twice, winning once and finishing third in the other.
Fun Mac was a further neck back in that race and he’s 2/2 since then, including a win up at Class 3 level, whilst the 100/1 4th placed horse from that day, Slinky McVelvet, has been kept busiest of all with a form line reading 314114 whilst Dullingham has been resting/recuperating. So, if the form of his last C&D win holds out, we should well be in for a repeat victory.
As well as the form, I’ve a few stats to throw at you, because I know how much you all love the numbers! 😀 So let’s start with trainer Charlie Appleby, shall we?
1. Charlie has had a quiet start to the new campaign, but looking back over the last six months or so, he has saddled 17 winners from his 81 runners, a 21% strike rate generating 30.44pts profits, a return of 37.6% of stakes and his record at Pontefract is 3 from 7, including that C&D win by Dullingham in October last year.
2. Dullingham makes his handicap debut today and Charlie Appleby’s record with handicap debutants is 10 wins from 32 (31.25% SR) for 12.1pts (+37.8% ROI), with all 10 winners coming from the 29 runners priced at 8/1 or under for a strike rate of 34.5% and an ROI of 52% via the 15.1pts profit achieved.
3. Horses running at Pontefract in the last five seasons who won a maiden event last time out have 16 of 74 races at odds of 10/1 or under, this 21.6% strike rate is responsible for 49.5pts profit, an excellent yield of 66.9%.
4. Dullingham is a son of Dubawi whose progeny have an excellent record at these middle distance contests. In flat races of 10 to 14 furlongs, these offspring have won 71 times from 323 attempts, a 22% strike rate producing level stakes profits of some 149.1pts or 46.2% ROI at all odds. There are obviously some larger priced winners in there and some non-handicap runners too. So, we can refine as follows:
In handicaps: 49/220 = 22.3% SR for 111.65pts (+50.75% ROI)
Handicaps at 4/1 or under: 42/111 = 37.8% SR for 31.4pts (+28.3% ROI)
Incidentally these horses are 3/11 here at Pontefract.
5. Today’s jockey Silvestre de Sousa is 13/43 (30.2% SR) for 48.1pts (+112% ROI) here at Pontefract between Evens and 20/1 and he’s 11/23 (47.8% SR) for 20.6pts (+89.6% ROI) with a 6/1 odds cap.
6. The trainer/jockey partnership has been very successful in the past too with a record of 16/45 (35.6% SR) with horses priced at 10/1 or under. This has generated profits of 41.1pts (+91.3% ROI) to date.
So, whilst 9/4 BOG isn’t the longest-priced horse I’ve selected of late, I think it’s still a decent price, as I’d expect him to shorten like Sirpertan did yesterday. Therefore I’d advise getting a 1pt win bet on at 9/4 BOG whilst you can. I’ve gone with SkyBet today, but there’s also some 9/4 on offer at BetVictor, Boylesports and Seanie Mac, so why not…
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