Double Dutch, 1st May 2014
After Monday’s 9/1 success and Tuesday’s 37.5/1 very near miss, we’ve had a good end to the month, nicely rounded off with two more winners yesterday.
As I expected, Tac De Boitron was far too strong/classy for his rivals in the Sagaro at Ascot, winning quite easily by five lengths and with us taking 4/1 BOG in the morning, we were set fair for our trip to the seaside.
I mentioned that Choral Festival seems to win at least once per season and that yesterday’s race might be her easiest option this term and she didn’t disappoint. She assumed control of the race 2f from home and stayed on strongly win by just over two lengths.
The end result was a 14/1 double to close out a decent month
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Tac De Boitron: won at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
Harris Tweed: u/p at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
Choral Festival: won at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Dozy Joe: u/p at 11/4 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
225 winning selections from 780 = 28.85%
74 winning bets in 205 days = 36.10%
P/L : +69.44pts (+17.10% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Two races in quick succession just before tea today for you…
Beckermet won twice at Redcar last season, including this very race and another over 7 furlongs. He’s 4/14 on soft ground and comes here on the back of two decent enough runs at 7f. He looks to have been aimed at this race again and will come here race-ready after two fourth place finishes last month, where he travelled really strongly for the first six furlongs. He’s a wily old sort and stands a good chance of going in again for his 7th win at this 6f trip. Beckermet can currently be backed at 5/2 BOG in most places.
The big danger is Tajneed, who looks best at the weights for this contest. He’s another veteran who knows what’s required to win races like this one. He has 3 wins and a place from six starts at this level and runs well in these smaller fields: 3 wins and a place from 5 with 7 or less runners. He was a course and distance winner just over a year ago on his only previous visit to Redcar and won’t mind the cut in the ground. He’s generally the same price as Beckermet, but Boylesports are offering 11/4 BOG.
Which should hopefully lead us nicely in to the…
Tilstarr stayed on late to snatch victory over course and distance last time out, just three weeks ago and looks well set to repeat that feat. She has won twice from her four outings here with an additional third place finish. Talented youngster Oisin Murphy timed the run to perfection last time on his first ride of this horse and he’s back in the saddle again today. She’ll need to set off for home a little earlier today, carrying an extra 4lbs, but Oisin is trusted to time it right again.
There looks to be more pace on show for this race than on her last outing, which should help her cause and the 11/2 BOG currently on offer at Hills looks like giving plenty of value especially as she’s unexposed at this trip with that run being her sole crack at 10f to date.
I’m swerving the favourite here, but not because I think Tawafuk isn’t good enough. He’s probably the best of this bunch, but a break of 336 days since his last run suggests he might not quite be at his best today, which should open the door for others, one of which is the likeable Lady Lunchalot, who is a four-time winner at this track, including 3 course and distance victories.
She was a winner here as recently as five weeks ago when stepping up to 12f and she has since been running in much better company, finishing fifth last time out. That race was also here, but it was at Class 2, some 3 grades higher than this contest and it was Champions Day on Good Friday, so a six lengths defeat wasn’t a disgrace. She’s only 2lbs higher than her last winning mark and she’s a pound lower than her last two runs and with a drop in trip allied to a substantial drop in class, she could surprise a bookie or two, especially BetInternet who have her at 17/2 BOG, some of which I’ll have as an E/W bet too!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Beckermet / Tilstarr @ 21.75/1 (5/2 & 11/2 : Hills)
Beckermet / Lady Lunchalot @ 32.25/1 (5/2 & 17/2 : BetInternet)
Tajneed / Tilstarr @ 21.75/1 (5/2 & 11/2 @ Hills)
Tajneed / Lady Lunchalot @ 32.75/1 (11/4 & 8/1 : Boylesports)