Double Dutch, 3rd May 2014
Friday started well as Calm Attitude extended his unbeaten record on soft ground to four races and a big drift out to 5/2 from our advised 7/4 meant we’d a healthy stake on our pair of runners at Lingfield later in the afternoon.
Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ended. Both runners were disappointing and they were the last two home of the six that eventually went to post after three horses were withdrawn during the day.
The only thing I got right was that the favourite Port Alfred wouldn’t win, he was eventually 3rd at a miserly 5/4.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Calm Attitude: won at 5/2 (adv 7/4)
Our Philli Vera: u/p at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Green Monkey: u/p at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
Gregori: u/p at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
226 winning selections from 788 = 28.68%
74 winning bets in 207 days = 35.75%
P/L : +65.44pts (+15.96% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This is my last set of selections for the week, so it would be nice to find a couple of winners from the following races…
Roachdale House has made the frame in four of his five starts to date, winning two of them in the process. He’s two from two over today’s 7f trip and was a winner on his only previous visit to Town Moor, when he ran on strongly to win by a couple of lengths staying on over course and distance last October on similarly soft ground as he’ll encounter today.
He can be excused his run at Musselburgh a fortnight ago over a longer trip on unsuitable good to firm ground. He finished 7th of 11 runners after a six month break from the track. He was, however, only beaten by seven lengths and should strip fitter for that outing and looks a decent prospect at 7/2 BOG dropping back to his more favoured 7f.
7/2 BOG is also the generally available price of my alternate pick Scrutiny, who makes just his fourth start here. He too was back from a six months break last time out and not only did it look like he needed the run, he found the 6f trip too sharp for him at Newmarket and he wouldn’t have enjoyed the good ground as much as he’ll relish today soft conditions.
The ground was soft when he won for the first time at Newbury and a return to those conditions should suit today and he’s another one who will have benefited from having had a pipe opener a fortnight ago. His yard couldn’t be in better form, and they’ll be expecting to add to their recent tally of 9 winners from 18 in the last fortnight here with Scrutiny.
I can’t help but think that Chavoy is overpriced at 8/1 BOG with PP here, as I expected him to be a good two or three points shorter, and he might well be later! He has already demonstrated his liking for heavy ground, having won twice in six outings and after running in three races at Class 2 and 3 recently, he drops back to Class 4 and the same mark as his last victory four starts ago.
His record at this Class 4 level is 3/5, having won each of his last three efforts in this grade. He performs best in these smaller fields, where he has two of three races. He has dropped back to a workable mark of 118 for this contest and I’ll be having an E/W saver here too.
I’m backing that selection up with Danners, who has won a couple of points races on heavy ground and is still relatively unexposed in this sphere, having made just 5 appearances to date. Although he has yet to taste success under Rules, results have been improving race by race and he was very unlucky to go down by a short head on his handicap debut at Fontwell last time out.
He seemed to idle for a while mid-race last time out and had he kept his concentration, he would probably have won and it is hoped that the first-time fitting of blinkers will help him along today. Runner up in each of his last two outings, today could well be a case of third time lucky and we can currently back him at 7/2 BOG in most places.
Which should hopefully lead us nicely in to the…
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Scrutiny / Danners @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Scrutiny / Chavoy @ 39.50/1 (7/2 & 8/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Roachdale House / Danners @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Bet365, BetVictor & PP)
Roachdale House / Chavoy @ 39.50/1 (7/2 & 8/1 : Betfair Sportsbook & PP)