Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2014

The Gardner ladies and their horse Rafafie got May off to a flyer for us yesterday with a tidy two length victory as jockey Lucy kept her mount working to maintain an advantage.

Even a 10% Rule 4 deduction couldn’t dampen the spirits as we got paid out at 3.6/1 about a winner sent off at 9/4. The key really is the BOG price as we made 60% more profit than SP and I personally don’t want to be leaving money on the table.

Friday’s race runs at a similar time to Thursday’s contest and we’re staying in Wales again. We are, however, heading to the North of the country and a 2m 4.5f Class 4 Handicap Chase, shown on your racecards as the…

7.20 Bangor:

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Where Nigel Hawkes’ horse Tokyo Javilex is a 7/2 shot, as he aims for a fourth win on the bounce in the last two months.

He was last seen at Chepstow 11 days ago and despite encountering “traffic issues” in running still had enough about him to get his nose in front late on. He only hit the front with about 50 yards to go, but was staying on strongly and won by half a length. He does tend to do just enough and does his best work late on, so I’d expect him to relish tonight’s extra furlong.

Nigel Hawke might not be one of the better known NH trainers out there, he certainly doesn’t have the profile of some of the top trainers, nor is he particularly successful in the bigger events, but he knows where to ply his trade and he’s very profitable to back blindly in his niche area, which just happens to be handicap chases.

Over the last four years, Nigel has had 111 runners in handicap chases and 24 of them have been winners, a decent enough strike rate of 21.6%.And if you’d put your tenner on every one of them, you’d have made a net profit of £756 at Betfair SP, a more than useful 68.1% return on your money.

That is, of course, if you’d backed all of them. Many people, prefer to be a little more selective and prefer not to back the longer odds horses and if we restrict that 111 runner sample down to those running at 12/1 or shorter, we keep all bar one of the winners, but get rid of 33 losing bets! This gives us a record of 23 winners from 77 runners at 12/1 or shorter with that 29.9% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 90pts, an ROI of 116.9%.

In class 4 events like this one today, the numbers are 12/37 (32.54% SR) for 41.6pts (+112.5% ROI).

Nigel also likes to send his chasers back out quickly after a win (Tokyo Javilex ran 11 days ago!) and those that won last time out and reappeared within a fortnight have won four of seven races (F1151U1) for 22.74pts with a 4/5 record from those completing the race.

Tokyo Javilex has only had four starts over the bigger obstacles, but with a record of 2111, he has proved to be far better in this sphere than his 9 previous winless runs. He has been raised 19lbs for his run of recent wins, but he’s clearly in great form and the fact that he only just seems to do enough suggests to me that the handicapper really isn’t sure what kind of mark he should be on!

I think the conditions and the trip will suit him and Sam Twiston-Davies is on board for the fourth time (121 so far), which is a positive for me, as is the horses record in races of 7 or fewer runners with three wins from three.

No walk in the park tonight, but I expect to be collecting from my 1pt win bet on Tokyo Javilex at 7/2 BOG, especially if the first-time cheekpieces are a help.

I’ve placed my bet with the Betfair Sportsbook, but at least three other firms are offering the same price, as will become apparent to those who…

…click here for the latest betting on the 7.20 Bangor

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Here is today’s racecard.

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