Double Dutch, 6th May 2014
I sort of got back to winning ways yesterday, as Dubai Dynamo’s 5/1 win (SP 4/1) in race 1 was coupled with the withdrawal of Pepite Rose from race 2, meaning a small (+0.5pts) profit on the day from the single.
It could have been better, of course, but Kempton proved to be a front-runners track yesterday and Turn Over Sivola was unable to catch the winner, leaving us 4 lengths adrift of a nice 23/1 double.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Dubai Dynamo: won at 4/1 (adv 5/1)
Toto Skyllachy: u/p at 11/2 (adv 3/1)
Turn Over Sivola: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Pepite Rose: non-runner (adv 6/1)
Results to date:
227 winning selections from 791 = 28.70%
75 winning bets in 208 days = 36.06%
P/L : +65.94pts (+16.00% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’ll class yesterday as a near miss, despite the 25% ROI courtesy of the nicely priced single, so I’m aiming to go one better from these today…
This looks a pretty weak contest with only Not Til Monday making any real appeal. He has 7 wins and 3 places from his 18 hurdles contests and a three-time winner n the Flat means he doesn’t lack for speed between the obstacles. He’s 2 from 2 over at Fakenham and he has won 5 times from 12 starts at today’s trip, including a C&D win in this very race last year.
He’s been away from the track for six months, which is my only concern about him, as he’ll love the conditions here today, having won six times from 16 on ground good/good to firm. 9/4 BOG is about as good as we’ll get.
And that same 9/4 BOG is the price offered on my second runner, Edlomond, who is a better horse than his last race might suggest. He went out like a light late on, but that was over a trip a half mile longer than today’s 2 miles. His previous three efforts had been at today’s minimum distance and he had won once and finished third in another. he’s getting 3lbs from Not Til Monday and that might just help his cause here.
To date, Athletic has three wins and two places from seven attempts over course and distance. In fact, he doesn’t have another A/W win away from this C&D! Therefore, this is his optimum race. He also comes here in decent nick, finishing 21321 in his last five starts, all over today’s 7f trip, the latest of which was a first win on turf at Brighton 12 days ago.
There’s not a great of recent form on offer from his rivals today, especially with the withdrawal of Whipper Snapper, so I’ll take him to win this one at 4/1 BOG.
Bare form suggests that the rest will struggle, but if we look a little deeper, I can make a case for Glanely at 3/1 BOG. Despite not winning any of his last five outings since breaking his duck at Wolverhampton, he hasn’t really been beaten by far and ran well last time out over this course and distance.
He may well have finished 6th of 8 that day, but was only 3 lengths shy of the winner. That race was at the end of January and he’s the only one of the eight runners from that race not to have run again since. The other seven have had 22 races between them in the last 14 weeks and have cloaked up 5 wins and 7 places and there were decent sorts in that race, which was far stronger than what he faces here today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Not Til Monday / Glanely @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : generally)
Not Til Monday / Athletic @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : generally)
Edlomond / Glanely @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : generally)
Edlomond / Athletic @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : generally)