Stat of the Day, 6th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 6th May 2014

Another winner yesterday to keep the good run going (10 wins in 19 days now!), but I was fairly bemused by the market for the race. I was quite pleased to get 7/2 about Flemish School and thought there was some value in the early price.

The 3/1 second favourite was declared a non-runner, significantly improving our chances, but also incurring another Rule 4 deduction and then our horse looked almost unbackable drifting out as long as 5/1 at times before being sent off at 9/2.

He certainly didn’t look like a 9/2 shot as he seized the initiative inside the final furlong and despite opening up a 6 lengths lead, he was still pulling further clear with every stride. He’ll not be 9/2 next time out!

We’re off to Devon next for some evening hurdling in the presence of some familiar names and friends of Geegeez in the…

7.20 Exeter:

Where jockey Rachael Green will claim 3lbs aboard the Anthony Honeyball-trained Taradrewe in this 2m 7.5f, Class 3 handicap hurdle.

The Honeyball horses are running well at present, typified by his three runners on Monday finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd at Ffos Las. Rachael initially rode Solstice Son into third place, before winning the bumper aboard Miss Mobot at 10/1, a race in which stablemate and latest Geegeez-syndicated horse The Geegeez Geegee made a promising debut, finishing 3rd at 8/1.

In fact Anthony Honeyball is another of those trainers you can back blindly and still make a profit, which is always handy. But, as well as showing you how profitable he is, I’m hopefully going to show you that the best time to back his horses is when Rachael Green is on board in similar conditions to today

1. Anthony’s career record stands at 98 wins from 598 runners (16.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 132.93pts (an ROI of 22.23%).
With Rachael in the saddle, the figures are 53/295 (17.97% SR) for 98.5pts (+33.39% ROI)

2. In handicap contests alone, Anthony has 49 winners from 241, a strike rate of 20.3% for profits of 90.75pts equating to 3.7% of stakes invested.
Under Rachael’s guidance, there has been 25 winners from 90 (27.8% SR) for 53.3pts (+59.2% ROI)

3. I suppose it’s more relevant to look at just the last few years rather than their careers as a whole and since the start of 2010, Anthony has had 41 winners from 181 handicap runners, a strike rate of 22.7% leading to profits of 100pts and an ROI of 55.3%.
Rachael’s record on the yard’s horses in that time is 22 winners from 77 (28.6% SR) for 53.3pts (+69.2% ROI)

4. From the 181 runners above, 99 ran over hurdles and the 25 winners (25.3% SR) generated 74.3pts (+75% ROI) profit.
Rachael has ridden 15 winners from her 57 hurdles contests, a strike rate of 26.3% yielding level stakes profits of 41.5pts, or 72.8% of stakes.

5. From the same 181 runners as in stat 3, the yard record at odds of 6/1 or shorter reads 32 winners from 94 (34% SR) for 46.6pts (+49.5% ROI) profit.
Rachael’s record reads 18/44 (40.9% SR) for 34.8pts (+79.1% ROI).

6. And finally! Anthony Honeyball’s handicap hurdlers sent off at 6/1 or shorter since the start of 2010 are 18 from 47 (38.3% SR) with level profits of 22.5pts, or 47.9% of stakes invested.
But, of course, Miss Green improves these figures once again to 11/28 (39.3% SR) for 18.94pts (+67.6% ROI)

Anthony sends two runners to the track today and Rachael is scheduled to ride both. Horace Hazel runs in the bumper at 8.20 and will probably be a double-digit price, which leaves us by default with Taradrewe as our selection, a horse who will enjoy the good ground forecast here, as she has three wins and a place from seven outings on good ground.

She comes here seeking a hat-trick and steps up from a six-lengths victory over 2m4f last time to today’s trip which is only 110 yards shy of three miles. The step up in trip won’t, however, be an issue as her previous outing was a 20 lengths demolition of a nine-runner field at Plumpton over 3m 1f.

There is, of course, a doubt about her rising handicap mark, which has risen by some 20lbs (9, then 11!) over the course of those back to back wins and whilst the handicapper is certainly looming large, I’m not convinced he has quite caught up with her and Miss Green’s 3lb claim will also come in very handy here today.

The best price I can find here is 3/1 BOG, but it is widely available, so you’ll be able to take your pick of the pack. I’ve placed my 1pt win bet on Taradrewe at 3/1 BOG with Hills, but I strongly recommend that you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 7.20 Exeter

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Here is today’s racecard.