Stat of the Day, 7th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th May 2014

Fifth of nine runners was the best Taradrewe could manage for us on Tuesday evening after a promising start. She had been pretty easy to back all day and was eventually sent off as one of the 4/1 co-favourites, after we’d advised a 3/1 BOG bet.

Approaching the 3rd from home, she still looked to have every chance, but quickly dropped out of contention, despite jockey Rachael Green’s best efforts to drive her home. Rachael did however manage to steer Horace Hazel to victory at 12/1 an hour later for some consolation.

More late action for Wednesday with an all-weather, Class 4 handicap over 6 furlongs in the…

8.45 Kempton:

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Where I’m backing Charlie Appleby’s Intermedium at 4/1 BOG, a horse set to be ridden by Mickael Barzalona.

Charlie Appleby is a relatively new name in terms of trainers, but he has certainly made his mark already. To date, he has trained 25 winners on the all-weather from just 107 runners, with that 23.4% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 21.8pts, an ROI of 20.4%.

He has enjoyed most success here at Kempton with a record of 15 winners from 64 giving him a similar 23.4% strike rate, but the increased profits of 24.15pts are equivalent to 37.7% of all stakes invested.

And in these early stages of his training career, he has attracted my attention as one to watch when runnng his horses in a handicap for the first time, especially if the market likes them.

In fact at odds of 8/1 or shorter, 11 of his 33 handicap debutants have won, which in turn has produced 14.42pts profit (+43.7% ROI).

Mickael Barzalona has ridden 19 of those 33 horses and he has managed to steer 9 (47.4% SR) of them into the winners’ enclosure with the resultant 10.65pts profit representing 56.1% of stakes.

Of Mr Appleby’s handicap debutants priced at 4/1 or shorter (where we’re likely to be today!), the record is 9 wins from 23 (39.1% SR) for 6.65pts (+28.9% ROI), with Mickael’s contribution being 9/15 (60% SR) for 14.65pts (+97.7% ROI).

Mickael Barzalona is one of the best jockeys around in handicap races of up to a mile, as he has ridden 37 winners from 181 rides between five and eight furlongs. This 20.4% strike rate has already yielded 109.2pts profit to date, or 60.3% of stakes, whilst his record hare at Kempton up to a mile is 8 wins from 31 (25.8% SR) for 33.8pts (+109.1% ROI).

If we just considered his rides at 6/1 or shorter, he has ridden 22 winners from 70 (31.4% SR) with a record of 7/16 (43.5% SR) for 19.9pts (+124.3% ROI) profit.

Intermedium has been consistently frustrating in four maidens on the A/W to date (3 of them here at Kempton) over trips of 7f (three times) and a mile (once) finishing 2323, but weak finihing more than anything else seems to have been his undoing and it is hoped/expected that the drop in trip down to 6f will do the trick today.

Charlie Appleby’s runners invariably attract support, so I advise taking the 4/1 BOG on offer from Betfair Sportsbook. Ladbrokes are also at 4/1, but they don’t offer BOG until 10.00am. You can see all the prices in one clear view, when you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 8.45 Kempton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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