Stat of the Day, 8th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th May 2014

We backed Intermedium at 4/1 BOG ahead of Wednesday night’s race and he attracted support all day, going as low as 13/8 in parts before being sent off as the 9/4 favourite.

He looked well placed to go on and win with a furlong to run, but had nothing extra when needed and eventually finished fourth, just a length off the pace.

More A/W action for Thursday over a mile and three-quarters in Nottinghamshire for the…

4.35 Southwell:

Where my pick is Chris Dwyer’s in-form Teajaybe, who currently trades at 3/1 BOG with Bet365.

Much has been made (in this column and elsewhere) about the success of USA-bred runners here at Southwell, but there is, of course, a little more than meets the eye: blind backing will not make you rich. In fact, you’re more likely to lose money.

I do, however, have a couple of angles relating to the USA horses here that you may or may not have heard/seen before.

1. Firstly, backing all USA-bred males here aged 4 to 9 since the start of 2012 would have seen you pick 95 winners from 448 runners, a 21.2% strike rate generating 162.1pts level stakes profits, a return of 36.2% above your stake money.

And even if we restrict ourselves to a 6/1 odds cap, the figures are impressive enough at 62 winners from 216 (28.7% SR) for 54.7pts (+25.3% ROI).

2. The total prize money for this race is, as is often the case here at Southwell, a paltry £4000 and over the last couple of year, whenever a USA-bred runner have competed in fields of eight or more runners for such a low prize, they have won more than their fair share with 49 victories from 259 attempts. This 18.9% strike rate has yielded 164.2pts (+63.4% ROI) profits in the process.

If we reapply our arbitrary 6/1 odds cap again, we’re left with 32 winners from 110 races (29.1% SR) for 55.7pts or 50.6% of stakes.

3. Teajaybe takes a drop in class for this race and although it’s a pretty small sample size, Chris Dwyer has dropped 22 runners in class for an A/W handicap over the last couple of years, recording 6 winners and 4 places in the process. The 27.3% winstrike rate has produced 19.9pts profit, a very healthy 90.4% ROI, but I do need to stress it’s a small sample size.

Teajaybe comes here in good nick, finishing 212 in his three outings since switching to the Dwyer yard. Stamina won’t be a concern, as the last two of those runs were over the 2 mile trip and he was only beaten by half a length by Tartan Jura last time out. That was in a higher grade than this today and although he’s up 3lbs for his recent efforts, an easing in both trip and class should swing this for him.

No big odds for us here, though, as the 3/1 BOG from Bet365 is about as good as it should get, but nevertheless you should still always…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.35 Southwell

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Here is today’s racecard.