Double Dutch, 8th May 2014
More crossbar-rattling yesterday, as Wednesday went the same way as Tuesday. A 1-2 finish in race 1 and a small bonus in the shape of a £6.67 forecast was only followed up by a runner-up berth in race 2.
I don’t like hard-luck stories, but if I did, I’d probably have one to tell… 😀
As it was, Master of the Game edged out the favourite Runswick Royal by just a short head and having drifted out to 9/4, we were relying on Picansort to get home at a similar price for a 9.56/1 double. Unfortunately, he couldn’t keep up his end of the deal, failing by just over two lengths to the stronger Dreams of Glory.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Master of the Game: won at 9/4 (adv 15/8)
Runswick Royal: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
The Forecast paid £6.67 here.
Picansort: 2nd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Magical Speedfit: u/p at 14/1 (adv 7/1)
Results to date:
229 winning selections from 799 = 28.66%
75 winning bets in 210 days = 35.71%
P/L : +61.94pts (+14.89% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’ve not quite been in as good form as I’d like of late, but we’re getting close more often than not and I’m hopeful of more good performances from these today…
Where I’ll be interested to see if Dr Newland can get top weight Smalib Monterg to fire first time out after a 10-month absence from the track. Don’t get me wrong, top weight on heavy ground for a horse with such a lay off isn’t ideal, but there are plenty of good things in his favour.
His trainer is 6/14 here in the last couple of years (3/7 with his hurdlers) and the heavy ground could well work to our advantage. The race is pretty bereft of runners with proven form in the mud, but our runner has won two and been placed in two of his last four outings on soft or heavy ground, he’s 1/1 on heavy.
He’s proven at this level, winning all three prior contests at Class 3 , the latest of which was his last visit to this course, where his 2 from 2, both at this class. top weight is admittedly a concern after such a break, but if ready, he looks a decent option at 4/1 BOG. That’s with SkyBet amongst others.
Despite needing a victory for a while, Canadian Diamond has been running pretty well, making the frame in five of his last seven outings and prior to a disappointing 8th place last time out, had produced his two best runs for a long time. In fairness, that last outing at Stratford was highly competitive against Listed class runners and future winners.
He was the runner-up in each of the two previous races, not beaten by far and a similar level of performance could be enough in what looks a fairly average race for this level. He handles the cut in the ground pretty well and looks a little long at the 9/2 BOG on offer from Boylesports.
Megaleka has been in cracking form of late, winning on each of her last three outings taking her tally to 5 wins, 1 place and 2 fourth positions from her eight runs this year. Her fourth at Wolverhampton prior to the recent hat-trick was her worst run of the year and probably no coincidence that it was the race over 6 furlongs for her this year, she’s far better suited to 5f.
The issue with Megaleka is that she hasn’t performed nearly as well away from the turf with a 2/12 record on the A/W, but she is on great form and perhaps her handlers are trying to strike whilst she’s hot. She’s only 3lbs higher than her last win and could possibly be well treated here, despite a penalty and she can currently be backed at odds of up to 3/1 BOG.
My preferred option for this contest, however, is course and distance specialist Six Wives, who is the opposite of Megalaka in that she’s far more at home on the A/W. She has six wins on all-weather surfaces, all over today’s trip and she has won three and been placed in three of her twelve efforts over course and distance.
Six Wives has admittedly struggled for success in the last couple of years, with a rising handicap mark, despite not winning races. Sometimes that’s a cycle that’s hard to break, but she’s now rated 4lbs lower than her last C&D win and provided she breaks well, I fancy her to take this at 15/8 BOG (Stan James)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Smalib Monterg / Six Wives @ 12.13/1 (4/1 & 13/8 : Bet365 & SkyBet)
Smalib Monterg / Megaleka @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : SkyBet & BetVictor)
Canadian Diamond / Six Wives @ 13.44/1 (9/2 & 13/8 : Boylesports)
Canadian Diamond / Megaleka @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : BetFred)