Double Dutch, 10th May 2014
Yep, you guessed it!
Friday saw us back one winner coupled with yet another runner-up and this time the margin between a 2pt loss on the day and a successful 12/1 double was just a head!
I said that conditions would suit Knight Owl and so it proved as he took the lead inside the final furlong and stayed on well to win by a couple of lengths going away. The only surprise here was that he drifted out slightly to 3/1 at the off and relinquished favourite status to our other runner, Ishikawa who was back in 4th place at 9/4 from our advised 4/1 price.
All this would have been great, if Saucy Minx had been able to hold on earlier in the day, but she was headed with less than 150 yards to go and although she rallied gamely and stayed on, just couldn’t get her nose back in front.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Saucy Minx: 2nd at 9/4(adv 9/4)
Serenity Spa: u/p at 7/2 (adv 5/2)
Knight Owl: won at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Ishikawa: u/p at 9/4 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
231 winning selections from 807 = 28.62%
75 winning bets in 212 days = 35.38%
P/L : +57.94pts (+13.80% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This is how I’m playing on Saturday…
Where I like the look of Hassle, a really consistent sort who has won two of his eight starts to date and has been placed in four other races and his worst placing is fourth twice in a career form line reading 24242131. he won over course and distance last time out (11 days ago) and stayed on well despite coming off a break of 204 days. He’ sure to be sharper for that run and the 5lb weight rise for that win is cancelled out by the booking of Ryan Tate in the saddle.
He’s 2 from 5 on good ground and we know he gets the trip and track well enough and I’m quite surprised to see him out at 4/1 BOG with Bet365.
I’m going to take Zipp with that one, on the basis of the way she finished her 3yr old season. She was second then first in a couple of back-to-back Class 5 Windsor maidens before stepping up to Class 3 for her handicap runs. She ran twice at that level and her last run of the season saw her beaten by just a short head over 1m 6.5f at Doncaster. She lost out to White Nile that day, who then won again on his seasonal reappearance at Class 3 a month ago.
Zipp steps back down in class to Class 4 for this one and although she will have gained some valuable experience at a higher level, I’m prepared to ignore her very last run, which was a totally unsuitable 2 mile Listed contest on heavy ground at Saint Cloud. The drop in trip and Class allied to better ground give her a great chance at 7/2 BOG (BetVictor) here.
Annecdote was a Group 3 winner at Goodwood last term to add to her previous Listed Class win at Ascot earlier in the summer. She’ll love the good ground that has been forecasted (2 wins and a place from 5 outings) and her record over today’s trip is excellent with four wins from five. The forecast good ground is one of the main reasons that I’ve chosen her at 5/1 BOG (BetVictor & SkyBet) ahead of the French raider Dalayna, whose undoubted talent might be a little stretched dropping back in trip and onto firmer ground.
My overall preference for the race, though is another super-consistent filly Winning Express, who was just ahead of Annecdote in the former’s only defeat at this trip. Winning Express has won 3 of her 9 starts to date, made the frame in five of her six defeats with her “worst” performance being a 4th of 15 in last year’s 1000 Guineas (Group 1), where she was only two lengths behind Sky Lantern who since won two more Group 1 events.
I’m not suggesting that Winning Express is that good, but any repeat of last season’s form should be enough to land this one at 11/4 BOG (PP).
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Zipp / Winning Express @ 14.17/1 (100/30 & 5/2 : Bet365)
Zipp / Annecdote @ 26/1 (7/2 & 5/1 : BetVictor)
Hassle / Winning Express @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : PP)
Hassle / Annecdote @ 24/1 (4/1 & 4/1 : Bet365)