Stat of the Day, 10th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2014

Once again, Mia San Triple was placed without winning taking her career form line to 3232. She stayed on well at the end to close within a length and a half of the winner who had got first run on her. It might have been a different story had she been a little closer to the action on the home turn, but it wasn’t to be.

It might be a little bit repetitive, but a 2nd place finish at 3/1 BOG on a horse sent off at 9/4 will make decent profits in the long run, Friday just wasn’t our day. The last few weeks have still been great and the figures for the 30 months since the start of SotD are excellent and I aim to add to them in the…

2.25 Haydock:

Which is a Class 3 handicap over a mile, where Kieran Fallon will ride the handicap debutant Active Spirit for Saeed Bin Suroor. He steps this one up from her 6 furlongs maiden victory at Pontefract almost four weeks ago when he was an impressive winner by five lengths on his racecourse bow.

Active Spirit is priced up at 3/1 BOG in most places and I’m backing him, because…

1. Last season was a good one for Saeed Bin Suroor here at Haydock with seven of his nineteen runners priced at 8/1 or shorter going on to win. This 36.8% strike rate produced a tidy profit of 11.2pt, the equivalent of 59% of all stakes invested.

2. Haydock has also been a happy hunting ground for Kieran Fallon in the past, with an overall strike rate of just under 17.9% (15 winners from 84) and an ROI of 27.35% courtesy of the 23pts profit his winners have produced.

3. Saeed Bin Suroor is one of the best around when it comes to preparing a horse for his/her handicap debut and over the lat five years 53 of his 201 first-time handicappers have won for a strike rate of 26.4% and level stakes profits of 55.12pts (+27.42% ROI). These includes all the runners at all odds, so we need to drill down to ensure the stats aren’t skewed by one (or two!) big winner(s). So, we apply some simple odds filters as follows…

Evens to 12/1 : 51/164 (31.1% SR) for 88.7pts (+54.1% ROI) profit.
Evens to 6/1 : 42/123 (36.6% SR) for 65.2pts (+53.0% ROI) profit.
Evens to 4/1 : 34/96 (38.3% SR) for 31.8pts (+33.1% ROI) profit.

So we can see that this angle is profitable at all odds.

4. This trainer is also quite happy to step up his horses up in trip for their handicap debuts and he has done this to good effect over the last five years when stepping up 76 horse by up to an extra 2.5 furlongs for their handicap debuts. 28 of the 76 were victorious for a strike rate of 36.84% and the profits realised of 59.44pts represent a 78.2% return above stakes.

Once again we should look further into the bare stats to ensure profitability at lower odds, hence…

Evens to 12/1 : 28/68 (41.2% SR) for 67.4pts (+99.2% ROI) profit.
Evens to 6/1 : 25/52 (48.1% SR) for 46.1pts (+88.7% ROI) profit.
Evens to 4/1 : 21/41 (51.2% SR) for 29.8pts (+72.7% ROI) profit.

Yet again, we can see that this angle is profitable at all odds.

5.  Over the last four years, runners in handicap races at Class 3 or worse here at Haydock, whose last outing was a win in a maiden have won 23 of 134 outings, a 17.2% strike rate yielding 28.1pts profit, an ROI of 21%.

As this is just Active Spirit’s second outing, there’s not a great deal we can tell you about him, but he was highly impressive when winning first time out. It was an effortless victory by a good five lengths and it really could have been as far as he and his jockey wanted. He looked to have plenty in the tank and shouldn’t be too bothered about the extra quarter-mile.

He’s by Pivotal, whose milers are profitable to back and his offspring don’t usually mind some give in the ground. So, with all this in mind, I’ve placing a 1pt win bet on Active Spirit at 3/1 BOG. I’m using SkyBet for this one, but the price is widely available, so why not…

…click here for the latest betting on the 2.25 Haydock

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Here is today’s racecard.