Stat of the Day, 9th May 2014
We absolutely smashed the SP on yesterday’s runner, Teajaybe who was steadily backed in from our 3/1 advised price to be sent off as the 11/10 favourite, meaning we’d certainly got the best value we could.
Them the stalls opened and that’s where the good news ends, I’m afraid. He was well beaten (10 lengths) into sixth place with just two behind him. The commentators were being kind/diplomatic when they suggested the 3lb weight rise did for him. I just think he ran poorly, as horses sometimes do.
No point dwelling on a defeat, when there’s racing every day, so let’s look for a winner in the…
Where I’ve backed Jeremy Noseda’s 3-year-old yard debutant Mia San Triple at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor, on the back of her decent form shown in three starts for Peter Chapple-Hyam last season.
1. In the last few years, Jeremy Noseda’s horses have performed well here at Lingfield with 26 of his 88 runners priced between Evens and 14/1 going on to win. This 29.6% strike rate has yielded 44.33pts profit at level stakes, a return of 50.4% on investment. I admit, that we don’t often bet at 14/1 for SotD, but i wanted to give you an overview.
If we look at those priced at 7/1 or under, which is more our usual “zone”, then he has still had a decent amount of success with 24 winners from 72 representing a 1-in-3 strike rate and the resultant 25.9pts profits are the equivalent of almost 36 pence from each pound wagered.
Interestingly, from the 72 above, his three-year olds have contributed 16 winners from 39 runs (41% SR) for 29.1pts (+74.6% ROI)
2. His record since 2011 in these 3yo+ maidens is also very encouraging with 26 winners from 97 runners for a 26.8% strike rate, which has to date produced 51.4pts profit at Betfair SP, an ROI of 53%. From those 97, he is 6/20 for 21.3pts here at Lingfield.
3. And since the turn of 2011, his 3yr olds have won 16 of 43 maidens on the all-weather when sent off below 7/1. It is a relatively small sample size, but it would be foolish to disregard at 37.2% strike rate that has already yielded 19.7pts at a return of 45.8%.
4. Mia San Triple will today become just the 38th 3yr old to be sent off at single-digit odds on debut for the Noseda yard, but 9 of the previous 37 have won (24.3% SR) producing 16.2pts profit (+43.7% ROI) and this is also encouraging.
The money is likely to come for newcomer Winter Thunder, whose pedigree suggests he’ll be much better than this level in time, but I think he’ll possibly need further than this trip and he might just need the run on debut for a yard that just isn’t quite firing at present. Add to that the fact he’s currently as short as 5/4, which offers no real value at all.
Mia San Triple, however, has the best form of those here, who have run previously, finishing 323 with some promise before switching yard. She was only narrowly beaten late on in her last Polytrack effort at Kempton two starts ago and she was third at Warwick last time out, 3.5 lengths behind Artistic Charm who was then rated at 85 for a group 3 contest at Newmarket three weeks ago.
Mia San Triple is rated 78, 3lbs lower than the other horse with any reasonable form, Inkerman, but we are carrying 17lbs than that one today. All of which makes me happy/confident enough of a 1pt win bet on Mia San Triple at 3/1 BOG, that’s with BetVictor, but we realise other bookies are a available and you can see their prices, if you just…
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