Stat of the Day, 12th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th May 2014

Active Spirit provided a disappointing end to a largely disappointing week on Saturday at Haydock.  Advised at 3/1 BOG, he attracted some support before being sent off at 5/2.

He had to be pushed along a good 3f from home in a one-mile race before folding tamely in the last furlong, eventually coming home last of the eight runners, some 18 lengths off the pace.

A new week brings a new set of challenges and we’re hoping to get back to winning ways via today’s…

6.50 Windsor:

Where talented 3lb claiming jockey Oisin Murphy will be aiming to steer Roger Charlton’s handicap debutant Be Seeing You to a first career victory.

Roger Charlton has a good record at this track with 37 winners from 209 runners and that 17.7% strike rate has produced 48.32pts (+23.12% ROI) profit to date. In handicap contests only, his figures are 114 wins from 88 (15.9% SR) for 37.55pts (+42.7% ROI)

In the last two years, the Charlton runners are 10/44 (22.7% SR) for 60.67pts (+137.9% ROI) with the handicappers winning 6 of 19 races (31.6% SR) for a very healthy 54.3pts (+285.8% ROI) profit and the yard as a whole are in decent nick with 6 winners from 23 in the last fortnight.

Oisin Murphy rides today, claiming 3lbs and his stats tell you that he’s one of the best claimers around, having won 49 of the 294 races he’s used his claim. This 16.7% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 55.95pts to date, the equivalent of 19% of stakes invested.

Oisin is 2/9 in Windsor handicaps and 2/5 for 11.57pts using his claim.

Be Seeing You makes his handicap debut at 1m2f, after three outings in maidens at 7f, 8.5f and 8f last year, the best run of which was a second place here at Windsor over 1m 0.5f when beaten by just a neck staying on. Each of his runs ahve left the impression that he wants further and his breeding also suggests that today’s 10f should suit him better. There;s also the fact that the trainer has success with handicap debutants stepping up in trip.

Roger Charlton’s record with horses making their handicap debut over a trip 1f to 4f longer than their last run is 21 winners from 11 runners, as trike rate of 18.9& yielding excellent profits of 60.5pts or 54.5% ROI.

Be Seeing You has been gelded over the winter and his opening mark of 70 looks more than reasonable, factor in the ability and the 3lb claim of the jockey and we’ve a decent chance here. I expected to see him trade at around the 9/2 to 5/1 mark and quite a few firms are in that area, but BetVictor’s current 13/2 BOG looks terrific value, so that’s where I’m going.

I’m taking the E/W option today with a 0.5pts E/W bet on Be Seeing You at 13/2 BOG with BetVictor, safe in the knowledge that even a place will ensure a profit on the day. To ensure you get the very best price available at the tine you read this…

…click here for the latest betting on the 6.50 Windsor

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Here is today’s racecard.