Stat of the Day, 13th May 2014
No joy yesterday as Be Seeing You was slowly away and never looked like threatening, before finally accepting defeat with less than two furlongs to run.
We’d taken 13/2 E/W and he was sent off at 7/2 after attracting attention all day. In the end, he finished fourth, some 3.5 lengths shy of giving us at least the consolation of a place payout.
We’re moving up to the North East for some hurdles action next in the…
Where I’ve just backed Sendiym at 4/1 BOG with SkyBet. This 7yr old is trained by Dianne Sayer and comes here with a good record at this track, having two wins and a runner-up finish from his four starts over course and distance here.
Not only does the horse have a good record here, the figures for his trainer aren’t too shabby either. In fact, over the last five years Dianne Sayer has tasted success with 13 of her 93 runners here (14% SR) and this has resulted in level stakes profits of 87.85pts, a figure equivalent to 94.5% of stakes invested.
If we then limit our selections to those priced below 5/1, we have 8 winners from 21 (38.1% SR) for 18.33pts (+87.3% ROI).
From the original set of 93 runners, the record in handicap contests is 12/77 (15.6% SR) for 101.3pts (+131.5% ROI) with the entire profit coming from Class 5 races such as this one today.
The record in Class 5 handicaps is 8/52 (15.4% SR) for 101.3pts (+194.8% ROI)
It’s not just at this track that Dianne Sayer is worth following, if you’d backed every one of her handicap entries over the last three years, you would have been on 63 winners from 457 bets, with the 13.8% strike rate manifesting itself into 160.25pts profit, a return of 35.1% above stakes invested.
At odds of 8/1 or shorter, those figures become 35/130 (26.9% SR) for 60.7pts (+46.7% ROI).
Colm McCormack takes the ride on Sendiym for this one and he’s sure to put his 5lb claim to good effect on board a horse running off a mark just a pound higher than his last win, so he’s effectively 4lbs better off here.
It’s no surprise to say Dianne Sayer employing a 5lb claimer jockey in a bid to get this horse back into the winners enclosure. Mrs Sayer is a shrewd employer of these riders, as has been seen to great effect over the last few years where she has had 14 winners from 68 horses priced at 8/1 or shorter ridden by a 5lb claiming jockey.
14/68 is a decent 20.6% strike rate and the resultant profits of 28.03pts are worth 41.2% of the stakes on those runners.
So, there’s enough there for me to side with Sendiym for this one and the presence of a short-priced favourite, who concedes weight all round means we’ll get a decent price on our selection. The best odds I can see at present are with SkyBet, who offer 4/1 BOG about today’s pick Sendiym.
Not all firms had priced this one up when I filed my piece, so please…
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