Stat of the Day, 14th May 2014
Sendiym was declared a non-runner at lunchtime on Tuesday, so nothing to report from Sedgefield, but we’ll try again with a visit to Wales for the…
Where 4/1 BOG chance (Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook & PP) Stockhill Diva will aim to follow-up her 25/1 success at Leicester 18 days ago. She stayed on well that to win by a neck, coming off a break of 221 days, so she’s entitled to strip fitter for that outing.
This 4yr old filly is Brendan Powell’s only runner anywhere today and on the occasions when he only has had one runner in the last four years, he has managed 13 winners from 91, a 14.3% strike rate yielding 149.5pts (+164.3% ROI) profits at 1pt level stakes.
There are obviously a couple of higher-priced winners amongst those, so with an odds cap of 16/1, we get 11 from 74 (14.9% SR) for 50.15pts (+67.8% ROI), but probably of more relevance is the 6/23 record with those priced at 6/1 or shorter. This 26.1% strike rate has been responsible for a handy 10.36pts profit and an ROI of 45.04%.
Of those 23 runners sent off at 6/1 or shorter, 15 of them were running on the back of a win or a defeat of less than 5 lengths last time out, with 5 of the 15 (33.33% SR) going on to win, recording profits of 14.55pts (+97% ROI).
As I mentioned earlier, Stockhill Diva won at 25/1 last time out at Leicester under similar circumstances (trip & class) to today and that win gives me hope that she can go in again here. Since 2010, horses running below 10/1 in Class 5 or worse contests who won at 25/1 to 40/1 last time out have gone on to win 63/267 races. This 23.6% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 110.4pts or 41.4% of stakes, whilst those sent off below 6/1 have won 39 of 134 races (29.1% SR) for 51.6pts (+38.5% ROI).
Liam Keniry takes the ride again today, after winning on this filly at the first time of asking and this is incidentally Liam’s only ride of the day and he has a good recent record when riding for Brendan Powell. He might only have ridden for the trainer four times in the last two years, but finishes of 3111 isn’t far short of fulfilling all expectations.
Liam has been riding pretty well of late with six winners (from 29) in the last fortnight and will look for another decent performance today.
No 25/1 odds this time, though, as I expect Stockhill Diva to be today’s favourite, but I’m still happy to back her at 4/1 BOG. I’ve gone with Bet365 today, but other firms are available at the same price, so why not…
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