Stat of the Day, 15th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th May 2014

No joy for us in Wales yesterday, as Stockhill Diva could only manage third place, despite being sent off as the 9/4 favourite. We beat the market comfortably, even if our 4/1 BOG advised price was hit by a 15% Rule 4 deduction. This meant we were due to collect 51% above SP, if she could get home for us and she looked to have every chance approaching the final furlong, but she didn’t/couldn’t kick on and take the race.

She looked a little one-paced late on and eventually finished 2.5 lengths adrift, so we’re still enduring a bit of a cold spell, which I aim to break in today’s….

4.10 Salisbury

Which is a Class 5 Claiming Stakes over 7f, where the 3yr old filly Intense Feeling bids for a second win this week after winning on Monday at today’s trip over at Lingfield in a Class 6 handicap. She’s up five pounds in the ratings for that run, but the rise in weight will be negated by jockey Noel Garbutt’s claim.

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There is however a precedent for her to take this race, as she fits the following criteria: won last time within five days, running at the same class or up one grade from that last run, officially rated between 4 and 7 pounds higher than the last run and now running at a trip within one furlong (either side) of that outing.

That might sound quite specific, but over the last couple of years, there were 208 such runners fitting that bill and who had a previous distance win and of the 208, 75 went on to win again. This 36.1% strike rate has produced 87.7pts profit, an ROI of 42.2%.

If we restrict our search to those runners priced between 13/8 and 6/1, which is where most of our SotD bets land, then the figures are 52/131 (39.7% SR) for 105.4pts profit, a return equivalent to 80.4% of stakes.

Intense Feeling is trained by David Evans, who is no stranger to success here at Salisbury, having saddled up 17 winners from 106 runners over the last four years, a strike rate of just over 16% yielding a massive 150.7pts from from 1pt level stakes, an ROI of some 142.2%.

Quite obviously, there are some big-priced winners amongst those runners, but with an upper odds limit of 8/1, the figures are more realistic for our purposes at 9 winners from 35 (25.7% SR) for 22.8pts (+65.1% ROI) profit.

David’s record at Class 5 level or below here at Salisbury in that same time frame is also pretty decent with 14 wins from 69 (20.3% SR) producing 137.84pts profit (+199.8% ROI).

Once again, there are some big winners in there and the stats for those runners at 8/1 or shorter are 7/25 (28% SR) for 23.5pts (+94% ROI).

His record is claimers here is 3/5 for 8.9pts profit and it’s no surprise to see a good record in claimers as he’s one of what Matt dubs “the Claimer Kings”.

David Evans has an excellent record in claiming races. Since 2010 in all claimers he has saddled up 35 winners from 203 runners, a strike rate of 17.24% with resultant profits of 32.6pts or 16.1% of stakes. Interestingly, when there’s some market support, the ROI increases, as the Evans claimers shorter than 12/1 have won 26 of 122 races (21.3% SR) for 73.6pts (+60.3% ROI).

Plenty of fact and figures to digest, but they do all point to another good run from Intense Feeling, so I’m backing her at 5/2 BOG with SkyBet. The markets hadn’t fully formed, when I wrote this up, so please…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.10 Salisbury

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Here is today’s racecard.

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