Stat of the Day, 16th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th May 2014

Intense Feeling was an 11/4 success on Thursday to get us back amongst the winners.

She hit the front with over a furlong to go and jockey Noel Garbutt kept her up to her work to ensure she got home relatively comfortably by three parts of a length.

South Lanarkshire is the next port of call on the SotD tour, as we head back into Scotland to tackle the…

8.40 Hamilton:

A Class 6 handicap over six furlongs, where I’m siding with Ruth Carr’s Hab Reeh for this competitive-looking contest.

Hab Reeh is a former course and distance winner and comes here on the back of a win at Newcastle over today’s trip seventeen days ago and now seeks to add to Mrs Carr’s long list of handicap winners.

Over the last five years, Ruth Carr has seen 948 of her horses sent off at SPs of between 5/2 & 12/1 in handicap contests: a very large sample size for me to work with! A more than reasonable 140 of these runners (14.8% SR) have gone on to win and if you’d wagered £10 on each of them, you’d currently be £1143.70 to the good, a return of just over 12% above stakes.

Mrs Carr has a slightly better record on lower grade handicaps under the same restrictions as above with 123 winners from 784 runners representing a strike rate of 15.7% and the resultant 145.63pts profit is the equivalent of 18.6% of stakes.

Over the last four years, Ruth has sent out 26 former C&D winners in the 5/2 to 9/1 odds range on the back of a win (anywhere over any trip!) last time out and seven of the twenty-six (26.9% SR) were victorious, netting profits of 16.5pts (+63.4% ROI).

Hamilton is also one of those courses where former course and distance winners do well especially when returning to the track in decent form. In fact, horses who won their last race prior to a return to Hamilton and who were already former course and distance winners, have won 22 of 87 races over the last four years with that 25.3% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 39.9pts or 45.9% of stakes.

From those 87 runners, 66 were sent off in the 5/2 to 12/1 price range and 17 of the 66 (25.8% SR) went on to win, resulting in 46.5pts profit, an ROI of 70.4%.

Hab Reeh roared back to form last time out at Newcastle winning by more than two lengths after controlling the race from more than a furlong from home. He could probably have won by further if desired and although a 6lb rise is probably fair, I’m not sure it will be enough to stop him going in again.

He does seem to be something of a “confidence” horse who goes through phases of not looking like winning, but when he does win, he tends to run well again next time out and even if he doesn’t win today, I expect him to be there or thereabouts, opening the gate for a possible E/W saver bet.

A quick look at the racecard show that 16 runners are set to go to post for this one, so we can get on board with a bookie paying out 4 places at a reasonable price and to that end I’m placing a 0.5pts E/W bet on Hab Reeh at 6/1 BOG with PP (Paddy Power), but as always I urge you to seek out the best deal for yourself. To do this, simply…

…click here for the latest betting on the 8.40 Hamilton

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Here is today’s racecard.