Stat of the Day, 17th May 2014
Some of you got 13/2 about Hab Reeh yesterday, just minutes after I’d gone “live” at 6/1 and his SP was 5/1, all of which meant he was a borderline case for an E/W bet and although the profit from him coming second was just 0.1pts, it is still a 10% increase on stakes, it prevented another hard luck story and kept the scoreboard ticking after a difficult week or so for SotD.
As it was, he gave his best shot, no complaints there, I thought the jockey rode a really good race, but we just found one better on the day, a fast finishing 28/1 outsider. The E/W option meant a second successive profitable day and I’m aiming for the hat-trick in today’s…
Where talented jockey Jason Hart will be expected to make good use of his 3lb claim aboard Eric Alston’s 6 yr old gelding Barkston Ash, who drops back to Class 3 level today.
You’re forgiven for getting bit of a deja vue feeling with this selection, as I did indeed select the very same horse exactly a month ago at Ripon, when he was a 9/2 winner for us and much of what I wrote about him that day still rings true, but with updated figures!
1. Eric Alston’s record when dropping horses in class over the last 4 seasons in flat handicaps is 27/136 (19.85% SR) for 98.2pts (+72.2% ROI)
2. In the last two seasons when employing a jockey claiming 3lbs, his horses have won 12 of 41 races at 16/1 or under. That’s a 29.3% strike rate generating a 50.93pts (+124.2% ROI) profit. From that 412 runner subset, Jason Hart’s record is 5/20 (25% SR) for 29.23pts (+146.15% ROI).
3. When Jason rides for Eric, he has a 1-in-6 strike rate (27 runners from 162 runners) for 59.9pts (+37% ROI).
4. Barkston Ash is Eric Alston’ s only runner out today and on the occasions when he’s only had one runner, he has a 17% strike rate via 18 winners from 106 runners. These sole runners have produced 65.02pts (+61.34% ROI) profits, showing that Eric doesn’t like going home empty-handed.
5. When those sole runners had won or finished within 2 lengths of the winner last time out and within 30 days of that run, they then went on to win 10 of 28 races (35.7% SR) for 37.2pts (+132.9% ROI) profit.
Barkston Ash is in good nick, winning at Class 4 level when we backed him a month ago, before being narrowly defeated in a Class 2 handicap last time out. He was only headed in the closing strides and went down by a neck. Thanks to Jason’s claim, he runs off effectively the same 86 mark and conditions are set to suit him here.
He’s 5/15 on good ground, including his last two efforts and all nine career wins have come from his 35 runs at this trip. When I starting compiling today’s report, he was an 11/2 shot, he’s now down to 5/1 BOG at best and money seems to be coming for him. To get 5/1, you might need to act quickly and I have just done so, placing a 1pt win bet on Barkston Ash at 5/1 BOG with SkyBet.
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