Double Dutch, 20th May 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 20th May 2014

Fourth and sixth in a 12-horse race coupled with a third and a seventh from eight runners doesn’t represent a great return from yesterday’s piece and I hold my hands up and say I got them wrong!

Both my main picks were well beaten (6th of 12, beaten by 6 lengths and then 7th of 8, 14 lengths adrift) and proved disappointing, but the best/worst (?) bit was yet to come.

In both races I’d deliberated over two horses for my backup selection and picked the wrong one both times. Storyline went on to win race 1 at 9/2, whilst Groundworker was 2nd ahead of Searchlight in the second contest.

It would still have only given us yet another 1-2 result, but it would have been a more palatable defeat than we eventually endured.

Monday’s results were as follows:

Ever Yours:  u/p at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Kiss From A Rose: u/p at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
———————————
Searchlight: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 9/2)
Flashy Queen: u/p at 3/1 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
236 winning selections from 838 = 28.16%
76 winning bets in 219 days = 34.70%

Stakes: 436.00pts
Returns: 479.82pts

P/L : +43.82pts (+10.05% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I’ve momentarily paused from banging my head against the wall to bring you today’s selections, which kick off with the…

4.50 Newcastle:

King of Eden has a decent overall record, winning 9 and placing in 9 of his 48 runs to date, but even more impressive is the record of 7 wins from 16 for 45.7pts profit when ridden by David Allan. He acts well on good ground, having won 3 from 10, he’s 8/43 at 6/7 furlongs and has rattled up three wins and five places here from his ten runs at Newcastle.

David Allan has ridden this horse six times previously here at Newcastle, winning three times and placing twice and King of Eden has been running well again of late, with a creditable third at Chester least time out, despite rearing at the start and losing plenty of ground in the process. Blinkers are re-applied today to help a better start, giving him every chance at 3/1 BOG, especially off a mark three pounds lower than his last win.

The going is now Good at the track having dried overnight, but rain is on its way and it could well soften a touch come tea-time. This will increase the chances of fellow 3/1 BOG shot Farlow, who has been acquitting himself pretty well at a higher level of late, but drops back to Class 3 today, just as he did two starts ago, when winning at Thirsk.

If truth be told, he’d like it a bit softer than it is, so the heavier the rain, the better for him today, but he has actually won on Good to Firm, Good and Good to Soft with today’s 7f trip being his preferred option.

*

5.10 Bath:

I selected Miss Tiger Lily for this piece 8 days ago and she was narrowly touched off by a short head and I’m happy to go with her again today. She’s one of only two runners in this contest with a win at today’s trip. She’s clearly in good form as shown last week and this race looks slightly weaker than last time out. Don’t be surprised if she blasts out and attempts to make all, as those tactics have swerved her well in the past and but for jockey Luke Morris dropping the reins last time out, she probably would have held on to win.

Luke’s back in the saddle today, his mount runs off the same mark as last week and looks a good bet at 2/1 BOG to make up for that defeat, especially now running against just her own sex.

Neston Grace won’t be found wanting for stamina today, as a dual code performer. She has previously won a bumper at this trip and has winning form at up to 2m3f. Today is just her third non-NH run and she hasn’t been disgraced in any of those runs, despite all of them being too short for her.

She made her Flat/AW debut at Lingfield at the end of February,  where she stayed on well to finish 2nd (beaten by half a length and closing in) over 1m4f. She then ran a 1/4 odds on favourite to within a short head over the same trip at the start of April. She was subsequently disqualified from that contest, but the quality of the run still stands.

The extra 1.5f will help her here today and she’ll enjoy the good to firm ground, where she has two wins and a place from four runs, all of which means there could be some value in her current 6/1 BOG price with Hills.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
King of Eden / Miss Tiger Lily @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
King of Eden / Neston Grace @ 27/1 (3/1 & 6/1 : Hills)
Farlow / Miss Tiger Lily @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Coral)
Farlow / Neston Grace @ 27/1 (3/1 & 6/1 : Hills)