Double Dutch, 21st May 2014
Back to the drawing board today after my second successive day without so much of a hint of a race winner.
Farlow’s third-place finish, beaten by a head and a neck was as good as it got, as my big hope in race 2 was very disappointing indeed.
Miss Tiger Lily was well backed (down to Evs at one point) during the day, but ran her worst race for some time and eventually finished 5th of 6 runners and some 43 lengths away from the winner at a measly 11/10.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Farlow: 3rd at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
King of Eden: 9th of 10 at 11/2 (adv 3/1)
Neston Grace: u/p at 5/1 (adv 6/1)
Miss Tiger Lily: u/p at 11/10 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
236 winning selections from 842 = 28.03%
76 winning bets in 220 days = 34.55%
P/L : +41.82pts (+9.55% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Wednesday’s selections are as follows…
Miss Tenacious was third in this race last year off a mark just 4lbs lower than she runs from today. She looked like coming back to form at Taunton last time out, finishing second four weeks ago. Conditions look ideal for her here today, as she has a record of 5113 here at Newton Abbot and also also won three of her last five runs on Good to Firm ground in a sequence reading 14113.
She has won at 2 miles and 2m1f, so the trip shouldn’t be an issue. She has won 6 of 16 races at this level, 4/10 in fields of less than 7 runners and today’s jockey Jack Doyle is 3/10 on her back, all of which mean she has solid claims at 9/4 BOG.
I’m siding with Benny’s Quest as my alternate here. He finished last season in brilliant form (321122) with both wins coming on Good to Firm, including a course and distance win here in August. He was last home of four runners last time out, beaten by 16 lengths on good to soft ground at Towcester eight weeks ago, but I’m happy to overlook that, as it was his first outing for six months.
He was entitled to have needed the run and closer inspection of that race shows the winner was the subsequent Listed class winner and now 134-rated Le Bacardy, so no disgrace there. He might be getting on a bit now at 11 years old, but there could well still be a couple of wins left in the locker: getting home today at 11/4 BOG would be nice, of course!
It’s going to be hard to oppose/beat Realta Mo Croi today and that is reflected in the current 2/1 BOG clear favouritism she currently enjoys. It’s easy to see why, after the way she romped home at Ffos Las last week, cruising home by 22 lengths. She’s up 7lbs for that win, but will go up another 8lbs on Saturday, which probably explains why she is turned out again so soon.
The two questions that hang over her are the quicker ground and the close proximity tot hat last run, but the way she hosed up last time out suggested she had a fair bit in reserve, so it’s basically a 2/1 bet on whether she’ll handle the ground, which is a fair wager in my opinion.
If she doesn’t get the ground conditions, that could well open the door for Thedeboftheyear, currently a 5/1 BOG shot. This 10 yr old mare was a winner over course and distance a fortnight ago and has won two of her last three starts.
She is also two from three (P11) over today’s trip and has some decent previous form on faster ground, despite her recent efforts coming in heavier conditions. Stamina shouldn’t be an issue and I’d expect another good run from her today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Miss Tenacious / Realta Mo Croi @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Hills)
Miss Tenacious / Thedeboftheyear @ 18.50/1 (9/4 & 5/1 : BetVictor)
Benny’s Quest / Realta Mo Croi @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Hills)
Benny’s Quest / Thedeboftheyear @ 20/1 (5/2 & 5/1 : BetVictor)