Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2014
Our race yesterday became a bit of a farce, reduced to three runners and stripping the contest of a true pace.
Our selection Silk Train was held up (possibly too far back?) for a run and had every chance in the final furlong. She seemed almost reluctant to poke her nose in front and went down by a head.
She was returned at 7/4, after our 3/1 BOG was reduced to 9/4 after the withdrawals, so we did manage to avail ourselves of 28.6% above SP, if nothing else.
Evening action for Thursday with the…
Where Roger Charlton’s 3 yr old filly Magic Shoes makes her handicap debut over 1m4f at Class 6 level after three fairly nondescript runs in maidens, where she finished 10th of 12 (Class 5, 7f, A/W), 9th of 11 (C4, 1m2f, Good to Soft) and 16 days ago she completed her third race last of 14 runners over a mile on the A/W at Kempton in a Class 5 contest.
This is a new trip for her today and a drop in class, plus it’s the first time she has run on Good To Firm ground. I’m not suggesting any chicanery on the trainer’s part, whereby he might have run his horse at a variety of class, trip, surface and going condition to gain a low handicap mark on debut.
I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and propose that he simply wasn’t sure what would suit her the best until now. So, reading the bare form of this horse might make my selection look like a bit of a wild punt, but there are some fairly compelling stats available to back me up.
When Roger Charlton has stepped his horses up by 1 to 4 furlongs for their handicap debut in the past, he has won 21 of 114 races: the 18.4% strike rate generating 57.5pts profit to date, the equivalent of 50.4% of stakes.
Also, in the last six seasons, when he has run his unexposed (ie 4 or less previous handicap outings) 2 or 3 yr olds in handicap contests at the same grade or one grade lower than their last run, they have won 48 times from 230 attempts. That’s a 20.9% strike rate, producing 117.6pts (+51.1% ROI) profit.
If we further analyse those 230 runners, we see that 171 were priced between 5/2 and 14/1 with 34 (19.9% SR) of them winning, recording level stakes profits of 139.6pts, an ROI of 81.7%.
70 of the 171 (40.9% SR) were placed, which meant that E/W backers were rewarded with 152pts (+44.4% ROI) profit.
And Roger Charlton is also well known for dropping his horses in class to get them winning. His record in flat handicaps with horses dropping in class is 49 winners from 219 runners (22.4% SR) for 147.3pts (+67.3% ROI) profit, with the E/W returns being equally impressive at 286.3pts (+65.4% ROI).
There’s little to tell you about Magic Shoes other than what I’ve already said and whilst she looks a forlorn case on paper, I wouldn’t be surprised if she causes an upset now sent handicapping.
She is, of course, a bit of an unknown quantity, so I’m treading a little carefully and playing a 0.5pts E/W bet on Magic Shoes. I’m taking the 7/1 BOG on offer from PP, but as only two firms had opened a book at the time I wrote this, I strongly suggest that you take the time to…
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