Double Dutch, 23rd May 2014
In what is now becoming a boringly predictable tale of woe, one excellent result for us was marred by being paired with a losing effort.
As expected/predicted Dubai Prince beat Gassin Golf at Wetherby by a length and a half with the next one home a good six lengths away. A nice 1-2 with an £8.30 Exacta to boot.
Unfortunately, the double had already perished, as Lion Beacon’s six lengths defeat into third place twenty-five minutes earlier had sealed our fate for the day.
This seems to have been the case for a long time now, but I remain convinced we’re not that far off!
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Dubai Prince: won at 5/2 (adv 10/3)
Gassin Golf: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Lion Beacon: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 10/3)
Our Folly: u/p at 7/1 (adv 8/1)
Results to date:
237 winning selections from 850 = 27.88%
76 winning bets in 222 days = 34.23%
P/L : +37.82pts (+8.56% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Friday’s selections are as follows…
I wouldn’t normally get involved in races of just four runners, but a spate of withdrawals this morning seems to have reduced a competitive-looking and difficult to read 8-runner handicap into something of a two horse race, which should hopefully play to our advantage.
The ground is now soft, hence the non-runners, but Comrade Bond will relish the conditions. He may well have only won three times in his career to date, but all three wins were over today’s course and distance, where has 3 wins and 2 places from 7 attempts. 2 of his 3 C&D wins were on soft ground and he’s 2/3 on soft ground anywhere. There’s not much for him to beat here and this could be his easiest route back to the winners’s enclosure that he has been offered of late. You can back Comrade Bond at 11/4 BOG.
The biggest challenge is expected to come from the unexposed 2/1 BOG favourite Glorious Star on his handicap debut. His trainer Ed Walker has a great record here at Yarmouth (7/14 in handicaps!) and this is his only ruinner of the day. Glorious Star is used to not having much company, having faced only 4 rivals in each of his to maiden outings, finishing third before winning last time out at Southwell. He made all to win that day over today’s trip (a mile has seemed beyond him on debut) and he’ll probably seek to lead the way again today.
In another race decimated by the weather (6 of 12 don’t go!) I’m looking at Tullia to run well here. She was progressive last season with finishes of 7231, before reappearing at Chepstow three weeks ago after a break of exactly 200 days. She was entiteld to have needed a run, but so nearly added a victory to her tally over today’s 1m trip on equally soft ground. She was collared really late on that day and despite a 3lb rise in weight, she should build on that today.
Tullia’s record on soft ground reads 212 and never beaten by more than a neck, so I expect her to be there or thereabouts and her current odds of 4/1 BOG look quite generous in a six-horse race.
Dynaglow and Stereo Love are the top two in the market, but I’m going to omit the favourite, Dynaglow, who might just need a run after being away from the track for almost eight months. She did run well on soft ground on her debut, but the lay-off might lead to some rustiness late on in what might prove a tactiacl encounter.
This brings us to Stereo Love, who has the benefit of running (and winning!) a fortnight ago at Nottingham over 8.5f. She ran on well to score by a couple of lengths on good to soft ground and she also has a decent effort under her belt on heavy ground, when beaten by just a short head, also at Nottingham over 8.5f. She’ll not be fazed by the conditions today and looks a decent prospect at 100/30 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Glorious Star / Stereo Love @ 11.46/1 (15/8 & 10/3 : BetVictor & Hills)
Glorious Star / Tullia @ 14/1 (2/1 & 4/1 : Bet365 & BoyleSports)
Comrade Bond / Stereo Love @ 15.25/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : BetVictor, BetFred, Hills & PP)
Comrade Bond / Tullia @ 17.75/1 (11/4 & 4/1 : generally available)