Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2014
No magic run from Magic Shoes yesterday, I’m afraid. She wasn’t fancied by the market and drifted all day, eventually being sent off at 14/1, double our advised odds! The layers got it spot on as she never threatened, finishing 7th of 10 runners, 34 lengths off the winner and 22 lengths outside the money.
Not the best of weeks so far, but a chance of redemption in today’s…
With Rae Guest’s 7/2 BOG chance Strike A Light…
In the last four years, Rae Guest has been profitable to back blindly, with his 103 winners from 679 runners (15.2% SR) generating level stakes profits of 118.3pts. A 17.4% return on your money from a “set and forget” approach isn’t bad going at all.
If you wanted to cut down on the number of bets, you could restrict yourself to those running at 10/1 or shorter, which would improve the strike rate to 21%, courtesy of a 60 from 286 record. This improved strike rate dramatically boosts that 17.4% ROI up to an excellent 44.7% thanks to the 127.7pts profit returned.
Further analysis shows that the lower grade (ie Class 4 and beyond) horses generated most of the revenue with a 21.9% strike rate (55/251) producing 119.5pts (+47.6% ROI) profit with Class 6 (like today!) runners winning 14 of 63 contests (22.2% SR) for 25.2pts (+40% ROI).
Strike A Light makes her handicap bow today and becomes the 63rd Rae Guest runner to do so since the start of 2010. 17 of the previous 62 (27.4% SR) handicap debutants won their race amassing 66.6pts (+107.4% ROI) profits in the process, with the sub-10/1 runners having a record of 16/35 (45.7% SR) for 59.1pts (+169% ROI).
She’s also dropping down in class today to run at this Class 6 level and in the same time frame as the other stats (ie 2010-14) Rae Guest has tasted success with 17 of the 104 horses dropping in class, a 16.4% strike rate responsible for 109pts (+104.8% ROI) profit with those dropping down to this Class 6 grade winning 7 of 41 runs (1701% SR) for 50.3pts (+122.7% ROI).
There’s not a lot to tell about Strike A Light, after just three moderate outings in maidens, but she has been sent off at 25/1 (twice) and 20/1 in those three races, but she’s being backed today in from an overnight 5/1 and the stats suggest that this might be a really good placing for her to start handicap life, especially in you add in the fact that Rae Guest has been very successful here at Yarmouth in handicaps over the last couple of seasons.
He’s 8 from 31 (25.8% SR) in handicaps here at Yarmouth over the last two seasons, with the resultant 14.6pts profits representing almost 47% of the total stakes laid out and all 8 winners came from the 22 runners (36.4% SR) priced at 8/1 or shorter with profits of 23.6pts more than doubling punters’ stakes with an ROI of 107%.
We’re not getting rich today and we’re probably not going to cover the losses incurred earlier in the week, but we can make big inroads into it with a 1pt win bet on Strike A Light at 7/2 BOG. This price is widely available and I’m using SkyBet, simply because they’ve given me a free bet! For your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…
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