Stat of the Day, 26th May 2014
No sort of run from Just Paul on Saturday to round off a fairly uninspiring week, if truth be told.
He was held up for a run, but when asked to get involved, he folded rather tamely with still a furlong to run and eventually only had a pulled up horse behind him at the finish. Yet, these things happen and today represents the start of a new week full of opportunities to get back to winning ways.
We’ll kick the week off with a crack at the…
Where I’m siding with Dean Ivory’s 6 yr old mare Links Drive Lady for this Class 4, 6f Handicap.
This horse has an excellent record in this type of race, improving her overall career stats from 6 wins and 13 places from 37 races to an impressive 6 wins and 5 places from just 16 efforts over 6 furlongs in handicaps from Classes 3 to 5. From those 16 races, she’s 2 from 5 here at Windsor.
Her trainer Dean Ivory, also has a good record here at this track in recent years, despite not sending too many runners here. Over the last four seasons, he has had 8 winners (and 5 others placed) from 20 runners, when sent off at 8/1 or shorter in Windsor handicaps. The 40% win strike rate has generated 14.6 (+73% ROI) profits to date and of those 20 runners, his record here at Class 4 level is 5 winners from 9, including this very race last year.
Today’s jockey booking is a positive move too, with Richard Hughes taking the ride. Richard rides really well at this track and will be expected to put his experience to good effect to help our runner overcome a 2lb rise in weight here.
She now runs off 85 after winning here over course and distance three weeks ago and whilst this mark has proved beyond her in the past, she has run creditably in defeat from it. She was a half-length runner up at Pontefract off 85 last summer in a higher grade than this and was raised yet another 2lbs for that run, but still managed another second place finish off the revised 87 at Newmarket.
So, whilst she hasn’t actually won off this mark, she has run well on a couple of occasions at this mark or higher and in better quality races. So, if she runs like she did last summer or even last time out, there’s no reason why she can’t take this one.
Hills have her installed as 7/2 BOG favourite, which looks a little skinny to me, but there are better odds elsewhere, most notably at Skybet who offer 11/2 BOG. At that kind of price, I’m almost tempted to go E/W to just preserve the monthly profits, but I’m taking the plunge and going all in with a 1pt win bet on Links Drive Lady at 11/2 BOG with SkyBet.
For all the other firms’ prices…
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