Double Dutch, 27th May 2014
After a couple of close calls went our way on Saturday, I was hoping got more of the same yesterday. Unfortunately, what we go from our four runners was another winner, 2 runners-up and a third place.
Trixie Malone was half a length ahead of Broughton’s Charm in our opener and I thought they’d be closely matched. The problem, was, that Fanoos spoiled the party by winning the race by two lengths.
Race 2 went as we’d hoped and yet again just half a length separated our selections in a 1-2 finish with the next horse a good 19 lengths adrift. There was the consolation prize of a forecast at £10.43 to a £1 stake, but the official result for DD is another 2pts dropped.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Trixie Malone: 2nd at 85/40 (adv 5/2)
Broughton’s Charm: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Monopoli: won at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Banreenahreenkah: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 4/1)
The forecast paid £10.43 here
Results to date:
241 winning selections from 862= 27.96%
77 winning bets in 225 days = 34.22%
P/L : +37.91pts (+8.46% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’m going to play Tuesday as follows…
The bookies have this ten-runner, 5f sprint marked up as a two-horse race and I’m inclined to agree with them.
Oh So Sassy is 2 from 2 on Polytrack: both runs at this trip and one over course and distance, as she made great progress last season and if wasn’t for a rise in weight allied to a break of seven months away from the track, she’s probably be a lot shorter than her current 7/2 BOG odds. If she can pick up where she left of last season, she has every opportunity of extending that 100% record on the A/W. There looks to be plenty of pace in this contest, so that might just tow her into the race.
My preference, however, is for Marmalady, the current 11/4 BOG favourite. Despite finishing third on both of her runs this season, she has shown enough signs of a return to last year’s form where she signed off with a run reading 2111 over six weeks. She’s 2 from 3 on the Polytrack, she’s 133 at this Class 4 level and has won once and finished once in her two efforts at this trip. She’s another who’s not short of lace speed, so it could well be set up for her here.
I like Olivers Mount here and he’ll take some beating today as he attempts to avenge a defeat by a head over course and distance from 25 days ago. He ran really well that day and was just touched off in his bid to land back to back course and distance wins at this level. Allowing for a 1lb rise in weight, but an increased jockey’s allowance today, he’s now theoretically 3lbs better off than last time out, so a similar kind of run should be enough to see him home at 3/1 BOG today.
Olivers Mount is a consistent performer, with 2 wins and 6 further placed efforts from his last 10 starts spread over the last seven months. In that time has has finished 232412 over today’s trip, all on A/W surfaces. His record here at Lingfield reads 3312, with a 312 record over course and distance, making him a decent proposition for us today.
As an alternative, I’m going to go with Secret Success and I’m ignoring the fact that he was last home of 10 runners at Salisbury 12 days ago! That was over 7f on soft ground and he doesn’t go as well on turf (0/6) as he does on the A/W (2/4). That 2/4 record was all gained on Polytrack where his record reads 3113, the latter three of those runs at today’s 1m trip. He last won off a mark of 62 and was third in his last A/W outing off 65, he’s eased a pound down to 64 for this run and a jockey’s claim of 5lbs should make him very competitive again today.
I think Secret Success might be a little long at his current odds of 7/1 BOG with Betfred, so much so that I’m going to have a small E/W bet on the side.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Marmalady / Olivers Mount @ 14/1 (11/4 & 3/1 : BetFred)
Marmalady / Secret Success @ 29/1 (11/4 & 7/1 : BetFred)
Oh So Sassy / Olivers Mount @ 18.50/1 (7/2 & 10/3 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Oh So Sassy / Secret Success @ 33.67/1 (10/3 & 7/1 : BetFred)