Stat of the Day, 27th May 2014
We needed every ounce of Richard Hughes’ know-how to get home yesterday. He switched Links Drive Lady inside and grabbed the rail moments before the penny dropped with the other jockeys.
This enabled our horse to take the lead inside the final furlong, a lead she dourly held on to, winning eventually by just a short head at 9/2, a full point shorter than advised.
So, profit ensured for the week, let’s try to build on it with the…
Where you can currently get 11/4 BOG with SkyBet for AP McCoy’s mount Parlour Games, who is not only making his NH debut after winning 4 of 15 races on the flat/AW, but is also running for new trainer John Ferguson for the first time.
1. To date, John Ferguson has a record of 16 winners from the 53 horses sent off at 12/1 or shorter on their first run for his yard, since coming in from other yards with at least 4 runs under their belts. This 30.2% strike rate has, so far, returned profits of 11.63pts (+21.94% ROI) from a 1 pt level stake, whilst the record at 4/1 or shorter reads as 15 winners from 43 for 6.72pts (+15.63% ROI).
2. The booking of AP McCoy is interesting too. There very few profitable micro-systems that revolve around the champion jockey, but…
…if you back him on horses priced at 6/1 or under in non-handicap hurdle races at 2m1f or shorter, there is a trend worth following. Over the last four years, there have been 333 such qualifying bets and if you had placed a £10 bet on each of them, your bank balance would be £925 better off, an ROI of some 27.8%.
Not bad for following someone who generally offers little value from a betting perspective. This is because 133 (40% SR) of the 333 have gone on to win. He’s more profitable on those sent off in the 5/2 to 6/1 region (our usual SotD betting zone) with a 45/151 (29.8% SR) record producing 79.24pts (+52.5% ROI), but it’s borderline whether Parlour Games will stay at 5/2 or higher.
3. Although this is the horses first effort in this sphere of racing and has such has no official rating to work from, he has won off a mark of 89 on the flat and competed in Listed class off 97, before eventually rising as high as 99. So technically, if not exactly, Parlour Games now runs off a mark lower than his last winning effort and John Ferguson has a good record with hurdlers running below their last winning mark after a run of at least five defeats (this horse hasn’t won in six starts!).
His record with those horses is 11 wins from 25 (44% SR) for 42.7pts (+171% ROI) profit, but more tellingly (perhaps), that record with horses who haven’t run over hurdles before is 5 wins from 11 for 18.53pts profit.
4. John Ferguson’s overall record in non-handicap hurdles here at Huntingdon is good, too: 7 winners from 27 equates to a 25.9% strike rate and the resultant 17.3pts profit are the same as 64.1% of all stakes.
Today might be Parlour Games‘ first run over hurdles and his first run for his new yard, but he really couldn’t have gone to a better home and he’s got the best pilot on board. There will, of course, be doubts over his race-fitness after a nine-months absence from racing, but if ready enough, he should see out the trip fairly comfortably.
Speed between the hurdles shouldn’t be an issue, he has won four races at distances ranging from 8.5f up to 14f and was considered good enough to run in two Listed races, after winning at Class 2 level.
There’s enough to keep us interested there and I feel pretty confident that I’ll be going back to the well to collect on my 1pt win bet on Parlour Games at 11/4 BOG with Skybet (just reinvesting one point of yesterday’s 5.5pts profit!). Betfred are also offering the same price, as you’ll see for yourself, as soon as you…
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