Stat of the Day, 28th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2014

Parlour Games won a shade cosily at Huntingdon on Tuesday evening and the only blot on the landscape was a 35% reduction in our advised 11/4 BOG odds, which took us down to around the 9/5 mark.

In fairness, his caused was probably helped on paper by the three withdrawals, but the way he put the race to bed was very impressive. AP was motionless and no drive needed and I was very surprised to see our runner returned at 15/8, a figure equivalent to just over our original 11/4, but for the deductions.

Two from two this week and the hat-trick is a possibility, despite me picking a much trickier looking contest up in Cumbria, where I’m hopeful of some tropical fire in the…

5.00 Cartmel

Dianne Sayer is another of those trainers I just love to back blindly. In NH handicap races over the last four years, you could have made a tidy profit from backing all her runners priced between 13/8 and 20/1.

You’d have placed 416 bets, found 67 (16.1% SR) winners and made yourself a tidy 173.3pts (+41.7% ROI) profit in the process. Her hurdlers contributed 45 winners from 258 runners (17.4% SR) for 126.8pts (49.1% ROI) profit.

If we impose a 12/1 odds cap, our original 416 runners become 323, of which 59 (18.3% SR) were victorious, resulting in level stakes profits of 100.8pts, or 31.2% of all stakes. The hurdlers shone yet again with a record reading 41/192 (21.4% SR) for 106.2pts (+55.3% ROI).

And if finally drill down to an upper limit of 6/1, we see Dianne saddle up 40 winners from 150 (26.7% SR) for excellent profits of 67.25pts (+44.8% ROI), with the hurdlers stealing the show once more with their 27/82 (32.9% SR) record generating 62.9pts (+76.7% ROI) profit.

Thise are Mrs Sayers’ general stats, but we can also see that Cartmel has been particularly good to her over the years, as she has saddled up 13 winners from the 48 runners she has seen sent off at below 12/1 at this beautiful location. The 39pts profit from that 27.1% strike rate equates to a massive 81.2% of stakes invested.

And from those 48 runners, the record over hurdles is 8 winners from 30 (26.7% SR) for 23.4pts (+78% ROI) profit with her hurdlers priced at 6/1 or shorter contributing six winners from fourteen (42.9% SR) for 17.14pts (+122.4% ROI) to date.

All of which leads us to the Wednesday card at Cartmel, where Dianne has two entrants. Sendiym has a decent chance of at least a place at 6/1 BOG in the 3.20 race, a 17.5f chase, but it’s the hurdler we’re concentrating on today.

Mrs Sayer has just the one hurdler out here, in the shape of Tropenfeuer, who was an easy winner last time out. She coasted home by a good 16 lengths at Sedgefield a fortnight ago and that was not only her debut for the yard after an 11-race career without a victory, but it came some 320 days after her last outing and 349 days after her last effort over hurdles.

She is, almost inevitably, hit quite hard in the weights, rising 13lbs for that last run, but I’m not convinced that the handicapper has her just yet. Such was the ease of her last win and we can be justified in expecting some improvement for having had that run, it’s difficult to assess what rating she should be given.

If she runs and jumps like she did last time out, then we’re in for a decent performance at a reasonable price. We’re obviously not getting the 12/1 she was sent off at last time, but doubts about the weight are probably contributing to her current 5/1 BOG price tag.

At those kind of odds in a fairly competitive looking 14-runner contest, it’s very tempting to hang fire to see if she drifts in the market, and then stick a cheeky E/W bet on her. However, as we said the other day, fortune favours the brave, so it’s a 1pt win bet for me on Tropenfeuer at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor. She’s already a little shorter with the other firms already active in this market, as can be seen if you just…

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Here is today’s racecard.