Double Dutch, 28th May 2014
Oh So Sassy’s one-length defeat in the opener was actually the “highlight” of yesterday’s quartet, that’s how poor it was. She tried her best to catch the runaway 16/1 leader who made all, but her efforts were in vain, whilst the well-backed favourite Marmalady was two noses and a neck further behind in fifth place, such was the closeness of the finish.
Race 2 wasn’t good for us in any way, shape or form, though and main selection Olivers Mount was 3 lengths off the pace back in 6th place. My 7/1 outsider Secret Success fared a little better, finishing in 4th place, but I was even denied the consolation of an E/W placer by just a neck, as he went from 1st to 4th inside the last half furlong!
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Oh So Sassy: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Marmalady: u/p at 6/4 (adv 11/4)
Secret Success: u/p at 5/1 (adv 7/1)
Olivers Mount: u/p at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
241 winning selections from 866= 27.83%
77 winning bets in 226 days = 34.07%
P/L : +35.91pts (+7.98% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This where I’m going on Wednesday…
Calm Attitude is in really good form and comes here seeking a 5-timer after 4 successive victories all on soft ground, making today’s going ideal for her. She won comfortably on her reappearance from an 8 month break to score by 3.5 lengths going away last time out. That was also here at Chepstow on her first visit to the track.
She’s up in weight again, but is still improving and should show more for having had that run four weeks ago. She’s 4 from 4 on soft ground, 1 from 1 here and 1 from 1 at today’s Class 4 level. She has also won both her races in small fields of 7 or fewer runners and looks set for another big run here at 11/4 BOG.
Back Burner has some soft ground form, but I’m more interested in handicap debutant Aldborough as my second choice. Ralph Beckett’s horses are in good nick showing consistent strike rates of around the 20% mark.
He has an excellent record at this track (14 winners from 47 in the last 4 years) and this runner looks quite leniently treated first time in a handicap off 70 and can be backed at 5/2 BOG with Stan James.
Newtown Cross is an interesting one here at 6/1 BOG. His overall record of 3 wins from 11 isn’t bad, but it isn’t spectacular and based on his last outing where he was last of 7, 55 lengths off the winner at Chepstow, you’d not want to touch him.
However, that was on soft ground and this is A/W racing, where his record reads 1811, all over today’s 2m trip. His record over course and distance reads 181 and he’s only rated 3lbs higher than his last win, which came two starts ago at Lingfield in a better quality race than this.
Of the rest, there are cases to be made for many, but I’m going to side with a horse who is still a maiden after 13 races! 4/1 shot Montjess has been running better than the winless start to her career might suggest. Her actual results on the A/W are 322452 with that last run being her sole effort here at Kempton.
She was 2nd of 11 that day over course and distance, 2.5 lengths behind Arty Campbell who has since gone on to make the frame in two races at a higher level. She had today’s favourite Arashi three parts of a length behind her on that occasion and she runs of the same mark today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Aldborough / Montjess @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : Coral & Hills)
Aldborough / Newtown Cross @ 23.50/1 (5/2 & 6/1 : Stan James)
Calm Attitude / Montjess @ 16.50/1 (5/2 & 4/1 : Coral & Hills)
Calm Attitude / Newtown Cross @ 25.25/1 (11/4 & 6/1 : BetVictor)