Stat of the Day, 29th May 2014
It was a five-lengths defeat for Tropenfeuer yesterday, I’m afraid. he stayed on well towards the finish to pass a few other runners, but he had been outpaced on the run to the home turn which ultimately cost him the race.
The end result was a 5th place finish as a 4/1 favourite, a point shorter than we’d taken earlier.
We’re heading down the M6 to the North West today for the….
Where Kevin Ryan’s Ardmay looks to have conditions in his favour as he bids to return to winning ways.
Kevin has a good recent record here at Haydock with 15 winners from 83 runners over the last couple of years and this 18.1% strike rate has generated 179.8pts profit, a figure equivalent to 216.7% of stakes.
Now, it’s fairly obvious that there must be some big-priced winners amongst that lot and we see that they came in non-handicap contests, leaving Kevin’s results in handicaps looking a little more realistic.
From the original 15/83 record here at Haydock…
Handicaps only: 10/54 (18.5% SR) for 52.1pts (+96.5% ROI)
All runners at 8/1 or shorter: 10/36 (27.8% SR) for 21.0pts (+58.3% ROI)
Handicap runners at 8/1 or shorter: 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 21.7pts (+74.8% ROI)
He has two runners here today, but Ardmay is the one that interests me, now running on more suitable ground conditions off a mark well below his last win and over a more favoured trip.
Ardmay has only won four times from 22 attempts, but he’s 2 from 7 on Good to Soft / Soft, which is how Haydock looks today. All four of his wins have come from 16 runs at the 7 to 8 furlong type of trip and he is 2 from 3 over this trip on Good to Soft / Soft ground, so conditions should be ideal.
He runs off a mark of just 79 today, despite his last win coming off 88 just over a year and nine runs ago, but in his defence, today is the first time he’s has these conditions since that winning run and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him perform better on this ground / trip.
In fact Kevin Ryan has proved to be very adept at getting horses to win after a run of defeats, once their mark has dropped below their last win. In the last three seasons, he has found 17 winners from the 135 runners that hadn’t won for at least five races and were now rated lower than their last win.
17/135 represents a 12.6% strike rate which in turn has produced 59.3pts ( +43.9% ROI) profits and those horses rated between 1lb and 12lbs lower than the last win have won 15 of 115 races (13% SR) for 63.4pts profit (+55.2% ROI).
So, with conditions seeming ideal and a trainer with a good record att he track, we should hopefully be back in the winners’ enclosure by 4pm, courtesy of a 1pt win bet on Ardmay at 100/30 BOG with Boylesports.
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