Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2014
Saturday was the second day in a row that we’d finished runner-up aboard a Roger Varian handicap debutant and although we suffered a 2pt loss, there was enough to suggest both horses will be winning races in the not too distant future.
As for Saturday, Pretzel ran his own race really well, save for a little drifting across late on. He finished/stayed on well, but couldn’t quite get to the leader who ran a blinder making all at 12/1 to remain unbeaten after three starts.
No disgrace endured at Newmarket and May remained very profitable, but today is a new day and a new month, so I’m hoping to get off the mark in style in the…
Where David Barron’s Fieldgunner Kirkup is a solid 7/2 BOG to land the spoils now dropping down in class to contest this 7 furlong, Class 5 handicap on soft ground. Despite failing to win in any of his last 13 runs over a 14-month period, there are several reasons why today might just be his day.
1. David Barron’s recent record at Leicester is very good with five winners from twelve in the last four seasons. This 41.7% strike rate has already generated 25.94pts profit at a rate of 216.2% ROI.
From those 12 runners, he’s 4/8 for 19.3pts in handicaps and 3/6 for 7.53pts with handicappers priced below 5/1.
2. David Barron has a good reputation for getting his horses to perform on soft ground. Since the start of the 2010 season, his record on soft ground over trips of six to fourteen furlongs is 22 winners from 124 (17.7% SR) for 155.6pts (+125.4% ROI) profit.
The bulk (61.3%) of those runners competed over 6 and 7 furlongs, where the record reads 14/76 (18.4% SR) for 42.2pts (+55.5% ROI).
We can further refine the original subset of 124 soft ground runners with a simple odds filter with those running at below 10/1 ISP winning 15 of 67 races (22.4% SR) for 31.8pts (+47.5% ROI) profit with the sub-10/1, 6f & 7f runners having a record of 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 25.4pts (+65.1% ROI).
3. Graham Gibbons is in the saddle today and he has ridden this horse to victory on four occasions: the horse only has five wins to his name! Graham is 4/23 aboard a 5/37 horse, so he does seem to get a bit more out of him than the other jockeys have.
Graham also has a great record aboard Mr Barron’s soft ground sprinters I just mentioned. From that 10/39 group of winners over 6f & 7f on soft ground below 10/1, Graham’s record is 5/18 (27/8% ROI) for 17.1pts (+94.9% ROI).
4. Fieldgunner Kirkup is on a fairly lengthy losing run, but drops to Class 5 where he is 2 from 6, he has won three times at today’s trip and he is proven on soft ground. He now runs off a mark of 74, some 8lbs lower than his last winning run, which brings me to David Barron’s record with out of form horses running below their last winning mark.
From his horses on a losing streak of 5 or more races and running off a mark lower than their last win, he has a record of 15 winners from 102 runners (14.7% SR) for 31.84pts (+31.2% ROI) profit. From those 102 runners, 39 of them were sent off between 5/2 and 8/1 and 13 of the 39 (33.33% SR) were winners, generating 59.64pts (+152.9% ROI) profit.
From those 39 runners, the record of those running off mark of 3lbs to 10lbs lower than their last win is 10 winners from 21 (47.6% SR) for 52.7pts (+250.9% ROI) profit.
Fieldgunner Kirkup wasn’t disgraced last time out, showing signs of a return to form as he finished 6th of 11 at Newcastle 13 days ago. That might not sound great, but there were plenty of mitigating factors at play that day. The good ground was too quick for him, the race was two classes higher than today and he ran off a mark 2lbs higher than he will today.
I think today is possibly the best chance he’s had of winning for a long time as race conditions seem more suited to him than they have for a while, so for me, it’s a 1pt win bet on Fieldgunner Kirkup at 7/2 BOG. I’m still using my SkyBet winnings from ast week, but 7/2 BOG is on offer in most places, as you’ll see when you…
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