Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2014

Fieldgunner Kirkup was involved in a fascinating three-way tussle for victory yesterday, but unfortunately came out as the filling in the sandwich, finishing second and beaten by just a head. On first viewing it looked closer than that, but officially just two heads separated the first three home, such was the tightness of the finish.

Our runner had drifted slightly out to 4/1, which would have been a nice pay-day, had he just got his nose in front a the right time, but it was unfortunately the completion of a hat-trick of runner-up finishes for us.

We’ve been very close over the last few days and I aim to go one better in today’s…

6.25 Yarmouth

Where son Simon Pearce rides Minstrel Lad for his mum Lydia in this 10f Class 6 handicap…

1. In the last three years, Lydia Pearce has had six winners from her thirty-three sub-20/1 runners in handicaps contests here at Yarmouth, with this 18.2% Strike Rate generating 31.2pts (+94.5% ROI) profit from level stakes.

Of those sent off at 5/1 or shorter, the record is four from ten (40% SR) for 9.69pts (+96.9% ROI) profits.

2. Generally, she has had a good recent record when utilising the Benefit of a jockey’s 3lb claim. In flat, in Flat handicaps over the last three years, she has saddled up 12 winners from the 77 runners (15.6% SR) ridden by a jockey claiming 3lbs. This has rewarded her followers with level stakes profits of 63.9pts, or 83% of stakes invested.

The bulk of those rides (and winners!) were with her son Simon in the saddle , as he was successful 11 times from 71 rides (15.5% SR) for profits of 62.5pts (+88% ROI).

Those figures obviously include all runners at all odds, but if we take a closer look at those more in line with SotD selections, there’s still a profit to be made. If we only considered those runners priced below 10/1, we still have 9 winners from 32 (28.1% SR) for 27.6pts (+86.2% ROI) with Simon’s contribution amounting to 8 winners from 29 (27.6% SR) for 23.1pts (+79.7% ROI).

3. Minstrel Lad is by the stallion Where or When, whose offspring have gone well here at Yarmouth in the past, particularly over these middle distance type of races. Over the last three seasons in handicap contests of 8 to 12 furlongs here at Yarmouth, horses by Where or When have a record of 7 wins from 13 (53.8% SR) for 43.1pts (+331.3% ROI) profit when sent off at 10/1 or shorter.

Minstrel Lad‘s overall record isn’t, admittedly, that inspiring on paper with a record of just 3 wins (12% SR) from 25 races on the level with a place strike rate of 36%, but in his last ten runs he seems to have come on, winning twice and making the frame on another four occasions.

He was a comfortable winner over this trip at Leicester eight days ago, despite dwelling and racing wide in the early stages, but made up ground to lead with a quarter of a mile to travel and then ran on to score by seven lengths going away.

He is, of course, penalised for that win and he would probably prefer the ground to have a little more cut in it. He has, however, won on good to soft and we’ve currently got good ground here. There is though, the prediction of some pretty heavy rain in the area and come evening time, there’s every possibility of a going change.

10f is his optimum trip and he’s used to being ridden by today’s jockey. It’s also interesting to note that two of his three career wins to date have come when sent out within a fortnight of his last run (3161 from the last four times this has happened).

All things considered, I think there’s a good chance with this one today, so it’s a 1pt win bet on Minstrel Lad at 4/1 BOG with SkyBet today. Bet365 are also offering the same, so for their prices and those from all the other major bookies…

…click here for the latest betting on the 6.25 Yarmouth

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Here is today’s racecard.