Double Dutch, 4th June 2014
Tuesday went far more to plan and wasn’t far off being a perfect day for us. As it was, there was a certain kind of symmetry about the day’s two selected races, as my first choice horse was the winner of both, with my second picks both finishing third.A couple of forecasts would have been nice, but getting the double is more than enough!
As expected, it paid to stick with Team Hannon in the opener, a 2yr old maiden and the Hannon/Hughes/2nd time out combo was profitable once again. I was very surprised (but pleased!) to see the eventual winner Where Will It End drift out to 7/2, whilst the Hannon second string Simply Magic ended up a good E/W bet at 8/1.
Familiar faces then saw us home five hours later at Southwell, as AP McCoy won yet another short-distance handicap hurdle to further extend trainer Kim Bailey’s excellent record at that track. he made all and was a comfortable winner by over 3 lengths. Handmaid was a further 3 lengths back in third, maintaining trainer Peter Bowen’s excellent run of form, as 12 of his last 13 runners have now finished in the first three home, including seven winners.
Much happier this morning, because…
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Where Will It End: won at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Simply Magic: 3rd at 8/1 (adv 11/2)
Supreme Present: won at 13/8 (adv 15/8)
Handmaid: 3rd at 7/4 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
248 winning selections from 890 = 27.87%
79 winning bets in 232 days = 34.05%
P/L : +36.88pts (+7.98% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Wednesday’s selections look a little/a lot(!) like this…
Orsm beat Torran Sound by six lengths over 3m 1.5f at Plumpton 24 days ago and I’d expect them to be the first two home again today. Torran Sound is 6lbs better on official ratings, but doesn’t have a 5lb claimer on board here as he did last time out. He does, however, have the services of AP McCoy on board which could help negate that loss of the claim.
Torran Sound is trained by Lawney Hill, who is profitable to back blindly, especially at the sharper end of the market. The trainer has a good record here at Fontwell (15/76 in the last 5yrs, 10/44 over hurdles) and AP has ridden 5 winners from the 10 horses he has piloted for her.
Despite a run of 26 races over hurdles without a win after a debut success at Market Rasen almost 4 yrs ago, Torran Sound has been running consistently well over the last year with finishes of 383523342 and the presence of the Champ allied to a falling handicap mark might just signal the end of that barren spell. You can currently get 11/4 BOG about that happening.
The likelihood, however, is that Orsm will still have too much for him. He was staying on the strongest in that Plumpton outing last month and this is a further 1.5 furlongs to run. He comes here in good heart after winning for the first time after 14 defeats followed by a wind operation. It could reasonably be argued that he ran better thanks to the operation and to have stayed on so well after a break of seven months from the track was impressive.
There might actually still be more to come from this one and Orsm looks a decent prospect here at 11/4 BOG.
Phil Mcbride’s horses are in excellent form at present, highlighted by Choice of Destiny’s 20/1 win at Yarmouth last night. Phil’s another one of those trainers who are profitable to follow on the flat with a 21% strike rate over the last year. He runs the in-form Camelopardalis here this evening who seeks a 5-week hat-trick after back to back wins at Yarmouth. She drops back in trip slightly, but an easing of the ground should ensure she’s not outpaced for this one.
She is Phil’s only runner of the day and he’s not the sort who likes to come home empty-handed when relying on one runner to cover the costs. Since the start of last season, Phil has had five winners from the 13 occasions where he has had just one runner on the day, including today’s runner Camelopardalis last time out and she’s priced up at 9/4 BOG with Hills to extend that sequence.
I expect the main danger to come from another 9/4 BOG chance, Rockweiller, who was a comfortable winner up at Ayr last time out. That was just 13 days ago over today’s trip on good to soft ground. he’s a former course and distance winner, has won four times in total over today’s trip and has some decent soft ground form behind him.
This 7yr old son of Rock of Gibraltar is far more exposed after 43 races than the lightly raced Camelopardalis, but the manner of his win last time out suggests Rockweiller may just have enough in reserve to make a good contest of this one, despite an 8lb rise in the weights.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Orsm / Camelopardalis @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : Hills)
Orsm / Rockweiller @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Torran Sound / Camelopardalis @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : Hills)
Torran Sound / Rockweiller @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : Boylesports)