Stat of the Day, 5th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th June 2014

After a string of results reading 2222, it was good to get back amongst the winners again on Wednesday afternoon.

After being advised at 100/30 BOG, Detour Ahead was backed all day as though she couldn’t possibly lose, but she made heavy weather of it, forcing jockey Gavin Sheehan to work very hard for his fee. She looked outpaced and beaten when headed 3 out, but she kept coming back for more and eventually outstayed Midnight Sequel (who was receiving 15lbs) to win by a couple of lengths at a ridiculously short even money.

Gavin Sheehan has to take a lot of credit for getting her home and he continued his own rich vein of form with a 2 from 2 performance on the day. We’re also looking to go 2 from 2 now, as we tackle the…

9.00 Kempton:

Where Luca Cumani is represented by the lightly raced 4yr old colt Bouclier at a track where he has enjoyed terrific success in recent times. Of his last 60 runners (stretching back to October 2012) here on the A/W at Kempton, Luca has had 16 winners for an excellent strike rate of 26.7% and an even better ROI of 125.9% courtesy of 75.6pts profits at Betfair SP from 1pt level stakes bets, including his only runner of the day on Wednesday, Kinshasa who won at 7/2.

Bouclier is Luca’s only runner anywhere on Thursday and he didn’t run as a two-year old and only made his debut at the age of 3yrs 8 months. This possibly suggests there has been some issues getting him to the track, but Luca Cumani does well with these late-to-mature horses.

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Once he did run last November, he was impressive and progressive in three A/W maidens in the space of four weeks finishing 231. His last outing was an 8 lengths breeze-up over 7 furlongs at Lingfield, where he made all and coasted home.

He was then put away for the winter and now returns from a six month absence and steps up in trip to a mile for his handicap debut at the age of four.

The above factors fit him nicely into the profile of a typical Cumani late developer, as we’ll explore in more detail now.

Over the last six years, Luca Cumani has developed a bit of a reputation for getting horses to win on their handicap debut at a longer trip than their last outing. He has a 25.9% strike rate with such runners, acquired via 28 winners from 108 attempts. This in turn has generated level stakes profits of 56.9pts, or 52.7% of stakes.

From this group of 108 runners, we find:
7 winners from 29 (24.1% SR) for 17.3pts (+59.6% ROI) on the A/W, of which…
…3 from 12 (25% SR) here at Kempton
7 winners from 35 (20% SR) for 8.2pts (23.3% ROI) when stepping up 1 furlong
and 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 25.8pts (+184% ROI) with 4 yr olds.

If we apply some basic odds filters to the initial group of 108 runners, we can drill the numbers down as follows:
12/1 and under: 37/95 (28.4% SR) for 67.9pts (+71.5% ROI)
The 4 yr olds contributed 8 winners from 13 (61.5% SR) for 26.8pts (+205.8% ROI) profit.

6/1 and under: 21/70 (30% SR) for 23.8pts (+34% ROI) with the 4 yr olds winning 5 of 10 races (50% SR) and producing an excellent 21pts (+210% ROI) profit.

As I mentioned earlier, Bouclier hasn’t run for six months now, but I’m not over concerned by this, as Luca Cumani is a master at getting his horses to run well first time up from a lengthy break.

Over the last four years, he has reintroduced 133 horses back to racing after a break of four to ten months. 35 of those 133 (26.3%) horses have won on their comeback, generating 95.1 pts (+71.5% ROI) profit in the process. At today’s Class 4 level, the record is 11/33 (33.33% SR) for 63.6pts (+193% ROI).

If we only consider those who ran at below 12/1 SP, there were 33 winners from 103 runners, a 32% strike rate yielding 74.1pts (+71.9% ROI) profit, with the record at Class 4 reading as 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 21.2pts (+81.5% ROI)

And with a 6/1 odds cap: 29 winners from 73 (39.7% SR) for 52.8pts profit, an ROI of 72.3% with Class 4 runners winning 9 of 18 (50% SR) races for 19.6pts (+101.8% ROI) profit.

The two main data strands here ie handicap debutants and returning from a break can also be interlinked, as the yard has a very good record with horses fitting both criteria with 8 winners from 21 (38.1% SR) over the last 4 years producing 23.4pts (+111.4% ROI) profits.

Bouclier looked a decent sort last winter and if he picks up where he left off, then there’s no reason why he can’t improve the above stats for the Cumani yard, so I’m placing a 1pt win bet on Bouclier at 7/2 BOG with Bet365.

I’m using them, because Wednesday’s winnings are in my account there, but several other firms are currently offering the same 7/2 odds, so you can take your pick of the pack, when you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 9.00 Kempton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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