Double Dutch, 6th June 2014
Our two selected races were settled by a neck and a head respectively, but unfortunately we were only on the right side of one of those close finishes.
King of The Danes was a strong fancy for me and I was surprised (and pleased, because I’d a reasonable-sized single bet on him elsewhere!) to see a drift from 5/2 out to an SP of 4/1. He hit the front 2 furlongs out and was driven to stay on to just keep his nose in front in a tight finish, with less than a length separating the first three home.
Shouranour, however, was 5 lengths off the pace and only beat one of his six rivals home. The one he beat, though, was the favourite Another For Joe, who I suggested would struggle at the weights.
Race 2 was another tight affair, where Rainbow Rock was backed in from 11/4 to be the 7/4 fav, but was unable to quite reel in the gamble of the race, Bognor. The winner was an 11/1 shot overnight, but eventually went off at 7/2 and went clear with a couple of furlongs to run. Rainbow Rock made ground up quickly late on and drew alongside in the final 50 yards, but the winner just found a little extra to stick his neck out.
It was a gutsy, resilient performance from the winner which had plenty to admire, but it meant our pockets are a little lighter this morning, having just missed out on a 12/1 double.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
King of the Danes: won at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
Shouranour: u/p at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
Rainbow Rock: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 11/4)
Grandest: u/p at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
249 winning selections from 898 = 27.73%
79 winning bets in 234 days = 33.76%
P/L : +32.88pts (+7.06% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This is how Friday looks for DD…
Keeneland‘s record over hurdles is impressive at 11611 and I should point out that the 6th place finish at Sedgefield in March of this year came after he’s been off the track for 21 months. He was, admittedly, well beaten (49 lengths) but still stuck tot he task and completed the full 2m4f on soft ground: a true test of his stamina after a long lay off.
He returned to action just 20 days later to win by a head, staying on at Kelso (16.5f on good ground) and subsequently won again a month later (45 days ago) also at Kelso, but over 2m 4.5f on good ground. he has won five of his eight starts to date, the trip / ground won’t be an issue and Adrian Lane will be on board to continue their flourishing relationship (2 from 2 so far). He’s up in the weights, of course, but this doesn’t look that tough a contest in fairness and he’s in good form, making his current odds of 13/2 BOG with Stan James look a little generous, unless I’ve missed something!
Another who looks a little long in the market is the 8/1 BOG (with Coral) chance Lucky Landing and that’s probably because his recent record is fairly poor. He won a course and distance hurdle event here last August before going chasing and he took to the bigger fences well initially with four finishes of 12(C&D here)31. He was then off the track for four and a half months before returning up in class to Class 2 (this is C3 today) and finished 7th of 9 at Doncaster, before going to Cheltenham to contest a Grade 3 chase.
He acquitted himself well in defeat over an inadequately short trip, finishing 8th of 23, but struggled with the National fences at Aintree next time out. He’s an interesting prospect returning to hurdles off a mark 11lbs lower than that Cheltenham run and in trainer Tony Coyle, he represents a yard who excel in handicap hurdles (10/47 to date with a 10/34 record at 10/1 or shorter).
(I’ll be having a couple of small E/W singles on the above, too)
Best Kept looks quite favourably treated off 78 here, eased down a pound in the weights after two defeats last month. He finished 5th on both occasions, but wasn’t beaten by far in either contest ( 2 lengths over a mile on the A/W at Kempton and then just under 2.5 lengths here at Goodwood over 9f on soft ground). He was only headed a furlong from home and weakened late on last time out, but the step back to a mile on better ground at a lower mark should all help today and he wouldn’t need to improve that much to land this at 7/2 BOG with Stan James.
Rapid Advance is an interesting sort that might not look an obvious one to back at first glance. Lightly raced with just three maiden runs to date (no wins!), he showed promise when finishing second in his second and final run of 2013, when he made a mockery of his 50/1 price tag to only go down by a length over a mile on the A/W at Kempton in November.
He reappeared at Nottingham some 159 days later in a Nottingham maiden and was 4th of 13, beaten by 2 lengths on good to firm ground which was probably a little too quick for him over 8.5f. That proved to be his last run for Roger Varian and he now makes his debut for Sir Michael Stoute, a dab hand at getting a little bit more from horses brought from other yards.
Today is a slight drop in trip, slightly slower ground and an opening mark of 78 doesn’t look too bad, based on that last run, where the three ahead of him have all improved and run well since with the winner winning again next time out up in class at Ascot on good ground. 5/1 BOG looks pretty attractive here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Keeneland / Best Kept @ 32.75/1 (13/2 & 7/2 : Stan James)
Keeneland / Rapid Advance @ 44/1 (13/2 & 5/1 : Stan James)
Lucky Landing / Best Kept @ 38/1 (8/1 & 100/30 : Coral)
Lucky Landing / Rapid Advance @ 50/1 (15/2 & 5/1 : Stan James)