Stat of the Day, 6th June 2014
Bouclier was disappointing last night, finishing nearer the back of the pack than the front. He eventually trooped home 9th of the 13 runners, beaten by a good 10 lengths and only 7 lengths clear of the back marker.
It was just one of those days to forget as we move on to the…
Robert Cowell’s horses are going pretty well at the moment with 4 winners and 4 placers from 14 runners in the past two weeks and this evening his only runner of the day is Naivasha, a lightly raced 3 yr old filly who’ll be partnered by Richard Hughes for her handicap debut.
Robert Cowell doesn’t send many runners here to Bath, so when he does, it’s worth making a note of them. In fact he has had just 25 horses compete here since 2003, returning 8 winners for a 32% strike rate and level stakes profits of 36.7pts or 146.7% of stakes invested.
From those 25 runners, the record at 7/1 or shorter reads 7/14 (50% SR) for 30.44pts (+217.4% ROI).
More recently (ie since the start of the 2010 campaign) Robert has saddled up 5 winners from 12 (41.7% SR) here for profits of 33.5pts (+279.2% ROI), with the sub-7/1 runners winning 4 of 7 contests (57.1% SR) for a return of 21.3pts (+303.9% ROI)
Bath has also been a happy hunting ground for jockey Richard since 2010 and his performances here in that time can be summarised as follows:
All runners : 21/80 = 26.25% SR for +37.3pts = 46.6% ROI
3yr olds : 11/29 = 37.9% SR, +25.7pts = 88.6% ROI
Females : 11/35 = 31.4% SR, +19.85pts = 56.7% ROI.
3 yr old females : 6/15 = 40% SR , 12.4pts = 82.5% ROI
Runners priced between 13/8 & 9/1 : 18/61 = 29.5% SR for 49.4pts = 81% ROI
3 yr olds : 9/21 = 34.6% SR , +29.2pts = 139.2% ROI
Females : 9/26 = 34.6% SR , +24pts = 92.3% ROI
3 yr old females : 5/11 = 45.5% SR , +1.95pts = 126.8% ROI
Richard Hughes has ridden for Robert Cowell on just four occasions this season, but has won two of those races.
Naivasha is Robert’s only runner of the day and he tends to do well with his single entries. Since 2010, there has been 19 occasions when he has been represented by a solo runner priced between 2/1 and 5/1 who was running within 30 days of a top five finish in their last run.
6 of the 19 have gone on to win, giving a 31.6% strike rate and 9.5pts (+50% ROI) profits at level stakes.
Naivasha has acquitted herself well in her short three-race career so far and in her two runs this season, she was 2nd at Southwell, beaten by just a length and a quarter. That was four weeks ago over 5f on the A/W and she then reappeared a fortnight ago to win by a similar margin over 5f on soft ground at Catterick, where she made all and stayed on well.
Conditions underfoot shouldn’t bother her today and an opening handicap mark of 66 looks more than fair. She’s the least exposed of the field and brings the best recent form into this race.
I expect her to attract attention during the course of the day, but for now she’s a viable betting proposition. So, the call today is a 1pt win bet on Naivasha at 9/4 BOG with Bet365. I think that price is on offer in a couple of other places too, but to be sure, please…
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