Stat of the Day, 7th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th June 2014

A nice comfortable victory for Naivasha at Bath got us back to winning ways on Friday, as she virtually made all before pulling clear in the final furlong to score by almost three lengths.

We got on at 9/4, which proved to be marginally better than her 2/1 SP, but she did go as low as 6/4 during the afternoon.

Hurdles action awaits us on Saturday with the…

4.35 Worcester:

Where Alan King’s Simply A Legend is priced up at 11/2 BOG with BetVictor on his bid to complete a hat-trick of hurdles victories.

Alan King has a record of 5 winners from 16 in hurdle races here at Worcester with horses priced at 7/1 or shorter, with both of his runners winning here last year.

Simply A Legend is to be ridden by Aidan Coleman who has ridden 15 winners from 95 rides (15.8% SR) here at Worcester over the last five seasons with those winners generating 63.6pts profit, a figure equivalent to 67% of all stakes invested.

This 5 yr old gelding had finished second in three of his first four hurdles races, all at shorter trips than today, before the application of a hood and a step up to 2m 3.5f did the trick at Ascot at the end of March, where he stayed on well to win by three parts of a length.

He was then stepped up to 2m 5f at Kempton and won by half a length, despite blundering at the last. He travelled well throughout and always seemed to be just doing enough to win and probably with a fair bit to spare.

He now comes to Worcester in a bid to land the hat-trick in what will be his handicap debut for a trainer who has the happy knack of getting horses to perform well in their first handicap outings.

Over the last four years, Alan King’s handicap debutants have won 16 of 94 attempts for a 17% strike rate and 32.25pts profit making for an ROI of 34.3%. His hurdlers provided the bulk of the winners and runners with a record of 14 wins from 85 (16.5% SR) for 30.9pts (+36.3% ROI), with the 5yr old hurdlers winning 7 times from 36 (19.4% SR) for 26.7pts (+47.9% ROI) profit.

If we apply a 10/1 odds cap: the hurdling handicap debutants have won 13 of 54 races (24.1% SR) for 35.7pts (+66/1% ROI), with the 5yr olds having a record of 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 14.5pts (+66.1% ROI).

At 7/1 or shorter: 11/40 (27.5% SR) for 25.4pts (+63.5% ROI) with 5yr olds winning 6 of 18 (33.33% SR) races for 18.5pts (+103% ROI).

And if the price shortens from our 11/2 BOG advised odds, that could be a good sign, as the record at 5/1 or shorter is 9 wins from 25 (36% SR) for 22.5pts (+89.9% ROI) and the 5 yr olds have won 5 times from 9 (55.6% SR) producing 17.7pts profit (+196.4% ROI).

Simply A Legend was sired by Midnight Legend whose offspring have been highly profitable to back in recent years. In fact, the 14.7% win strike rate form the 1100-plus runs by his offspring over the last couple has generated over 21% profits above stakes and his progeny have consistently performed well here at Worcester, especially in similar situations to today’s contest.

Since 2009 in races of up to 2m 7f here at Worcester, runners sired by Midnight Legend have won 13 of 76 (17.1% SR) for 25.9pts profit (+34.1% ROI). From these 76 runners, geldings have a 6/34 (17.7% SR) record generating 13pts (+38.2% ROI) and 5yr olds have won 4 of 14 (28.6% SR).

We can further drill down in the 13/76 record of Midnight Legend’s offspring at Worcester as follows:

12/1 odds cap : 12/38 (+31.6% SR) for 36.4pts (+95.8% ROI)
8/1 odds cap : 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 30.7pts (+113.7% ROI)
6/1 odds cap : 10/20 (50.0% SR) for 27.2pts (+136% ROI)

All of which points to another decent run by Simply A Legend, especially if the price contracts. The current best price of 11/2 BOG is borderline E/W territory and this is a competitive enough contest for a handicap debut, but I don’t think that this horse is done improving just yet.

With that in mind and the old “fortune favours the brave” adage ringing in my ears, I’m going all in with a 1pt win bet on Simply A Legend at 11/2 BOG with BetVictor. You can, of course, choose to take the E/W option should the price suit you and you can see all the available prices when you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 4.35 Worcester

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Here is today’s racecard.