Double Dutch, 7th June 2014
In light of recent results, it might have looked a little ambitious/desperate of me to hope to land a 77/1 double from yesterday’s selections, but I genuinely felt that all four were overpriced and had chances of success.
As it was, we landed a 5/1 winner in race 2, after Lucky Landing had finished second earlier. I’d suggested that Tony Coyle’s horses are worth a second look and despite this one drifting out from 8/1 to a huge 12/1 at the off, he put up a great show to only go down by a length and a half.
This meant yet another day of a winner coupled to a runner-up, but there was certainly value in the selections.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Lucky Landing: 2nd at 12/1 (adv 8/1)
Keeneland: u/p at 5/1 (adv 13/2)
Rapid Advance: won at 9/2 (adv 5/1)
Best Kept: u/p at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
250 winning selections from 902 = 27.72%
79 winning bets in 235 days = 33.62%
P/L : +30.88pts (+6.60% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’m signing off for this week with these…
Baccalaureate and Mighty Whitey are the two to take against the field here based on past form. The truth is that none of the 8 runners have done much of late, but previous efforts and official ratings suggest these two are well in at the weights.
If I had to pick between the two, I’d side with Baccalaureate at 9/4 BOG, he has won on soft ground in the past and has a great record (7 wins from 19) over today’s trip. He was a course and distance winner on his only previous visit to Hexham and with 5 wins and 2 places from his 8 runs at this Class 5 level, he’s the yardstick here.
Mighty Whitey is a similarly priced 9/4 BOG and if we were to ignore his last disappointing effort over hurdles in a stronger race than this at Limerick six weeks, his hurdling form has been consistently good (332312), He acts well on soft ground, despite not registering a win just yet, but he has finished in the frame three times from five soft ground runs. He has a win and two places from three Class 5 races and his record at this trip is 3 wins and 4 places from 10 efforts.
The Romford Pele looks the one to beat here, after an impressive run in defeat in a much better race (Grade 1) than this at Punchestown five weeks ago. He was beaten by less than 7 lengths into third that day and ran to within 6 lengths of 145-rated Road To Riches. He also had former Grade 2 runner-up and 133-rated Followmeuptocarlow a length and a quarter further back and the latter then won next time out by six lengths.
This is a marked drop in class here and I fully expect him to land this one here at 2/1 BOG. The ground and the trip will be fine and he excels in these smaller fields.
Of his rivals, Deciding Moment has the best recent form and comes here off the back of two good runs over today’s trip and at this Class 3 level. He was beaten by just three parts of a length at Market Rasen almost 7 weeks ago, before winning at Stratford last time out. His record over fences stands at 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from six starts. He has a win and a second place from 2 efforts at this trip as well as a couple of good efforts on soft ground, should the weather worsen. He also prefers the smaller fields, as shown by his 221 record in races of 7 or fewer runners. 9/2 BOG actually looks a little generous here, if the favourite isn’t on the ball.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Baccalaureate / The Romford Pele @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Baccalaureate / Deciding Moment @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : Stan James)
Mighty Whitey / The Romford Pele @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Mighty Whitey / Deciding Moment @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : Stan James)