Stat of the Day, 9th June 2014
Last week was a profitable one, but we were unable to close it out with a win, as Simply A Legend’s challenge faded late on.
He’d been held up for a run and started to make headway from 4 out, but didn’t have the legs to see it out and weakened in the closing stages to finish back in 7th place at 5/1, half a point shorter than our advised odds.
Summer flat racing on a Monday evening generally involves a trip to the banks of the Thames in Berkshire. And so it is again for us with the…
Where Red Warrior will be aiming for back to back victories, after running out a 25/1 winner at Yarmouth last time out. He closed out last season with two decent placed runs before resting for the winter/spring. He returned from a break of 160 days to defy that 25/1 price tag by running on well to score by almost two lengths.
The form of that race seems to be working out well, with six of the horses from that contest going on to win since and the third placed horse has been beaten by a short head in a Group 3 contest and by a length in Listed company, so if the form holds out and Red Warrior comes on as expected for having had that run, there’s no reason why he can’t go in again.
In fact, over the last four years 136 of 938 horses have won their next race after winning at odds of 25/1 or higher last time when turned back out at either the same class or up one grade.
This 14.5% strike rate has yielded a level stake profit of 66pts and whilst a return of 7.04% isn’t spectacular, it’s not bad from so many bets in a short space of time.
Now I’m not keen on backing so many runners from one stat, so I do like to filter some runners out and a quick look at the odds offered for the follow-up win speak for themselves, as it seems the market has the key to future success.
When these big-priced winners were priced at 8/1 or shorter next time out, they were successful in 112 of 512 (21.9% SR) races, which in turn produced level stakes profits of some 115.4pts, an ROI of 22.5% which is far more palatable for SotD purposes.
If we then ruled out those runners priced below 5/2, as we rarely venture into territory for this feature, we end up with a slightly lower strike rate, as you’d expect by ruling out the shorties, but we do have a better profit figure and resultant ROI. In fact we arrive at a 20.1% strike rate (91/452) for 123.6pts (+27.33% ROI).
This gives us plenty if optimism about Red Warrior’s follow-up chances, as does the fact he’s trained by Ismail Mohammed, whose horses have been in sensational form over the last 18 months, winning 28 of 134 (20.9% SR) races for profits of 43.9pts (+32.77% ROI).
The vast bulk of his success comes in handicap contests where his record of 25 wins from 83 (30.1% SR) is exceptional, as are the resultant 78.2pts (+94.2% ROI), not bad at all from blind backing.
With runners priced at 12/1 or shorter, he’s 23 from 72 (31.9% SR) for 56.4pts (+78.4% ROI), whilst his runners at 8/1 or shorter have won 21 of 62 races (33.9% SR) for 43 pts (+69.3% ROI).
In short, Ismail Mohammed is a trainer to follow, until the markets get wise to him and as Red Warrior is his only runner of the day, he becomes the selection almost by default, but the supplementary stat backs him up, as does his own form and that of the race he won last time out.
I’d expect a further improvement today and although I can currently 6/1 BOG for our selection, I’m sticking with my recent win-only strategy that has served us well of late. Therefore, the play is a 1pt win bet on Red Warrior at 6/1 BOG. That price is with PP, but you can check all the other available prices, when you…
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